Americans are overwhelmingly polarized over ongoing presidential election campaigns. The choice is going to be between Donald Trump – an oligarch accused of disregarding the interests of minorities, and Hillary Clinton – an utterly disgraced public servant too unqualified and incompetent to even serve at the lowest possible grade in the US State Department. But, between the two, one has already clearly […]
As promised, I have published my review of the Lifeboat Foundation book Prospects for Human Survival (Willard Wells, 2015). It is more critical than the review of Visions of the Future (also 2015).
I think it is harder to predict existential risks than the equations put forward by Wells, as I argue in the opening parts of my essay. One problem is that maths can only be useful in evaluating what you don’t know from what you do know. One could have done a study of the gradual increase in explosive weapons, but at no point would such study have predicted the emergence of the nuke, which was developed secretively. What Wells does not consider is the unknowns, for which there is no equation. One cannot actually predict their probability, although we can hypothesize about their possibility.
I can only apologize for not writing a longer post today but I am at the limit of what I can do in a day at this point. Tomorrow, I will find an exciting topic to write about, possibly expanding on discoveries I made in books recently.