So, which one do we believe? AP has it dead even, so does the Battleground Poll but Reuters has Obama up 12 and Gallup has him up 5 among likely voters. The only poll to get it right in 2004 was IBD and they have Obama up 3.7:

Contrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama’s lead to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He’s also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he’s gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents.

Since it’s been demonstrated in the past that it is accurate, it’s the one I’ll be watching until election day but if you want to be deluded into thinking Obama has this sown up, then stick with Reuters.
Update: OK, then there’s this. Either these polls are totally off or Obama is crushing in all of the battleground states??? Even Indiana?? Indianans would vote for a guy who will raise taxes on business, on individuals making less than $200,000 and is pro gun control. I find that hard to believe.
Another update: OK, this is why I think I’m going to ignore the polls from the battleground states. Who knows who is right.