City of Brass

City of Brass

Post-election musings

posted by Aziz Poonawalla

First, let’s see how I fared – my Electoral College prediction of 310 EVs for Obama was obviously on the pessimistic side. Still, I called this election for Obama last Friday, so for me it was never a question of whether Obama would win, but only by how much. I was overly generous in giving OH, FL and PA to McCain when in fact he lost all three. I was correct about Nevada and Virginia, the latter a historic win in and of itself, but these weren’t particularly bold calls on my part since many other pundits predicted the same. Missouri is still to close to call, and I was wrong about Montana and Georgia, but I was spectacularly correct about Indiana, which went to Obama by a sliver, which is as significant, if not more so, as the Virginia win. As it stands, Obama is at 349 EVs without MO and GA, so by my reckoning I was off by 57 – 68 EVs depending on how MO goes. That’s 87-89% accurate. In other words, I’m nowhere near as good as Nate Silver, who nailed it across the board.

In no particular order, some additional thoughts:

  • Three political dynasties – Clinton, Bush, and Dole – ended last night.
  • There is no Bradley effect – Obama outperformed Kerry with white males and females alike.
  • Electing a black President doesn’t end racism; it opens the door to move beyond it.
  • In 1963, the Reverend Martin Luther King gave his famous “I have a Dream” speech. Barack Obama was 2 years old.
  • Undecideds broke about evenly for McCain and Obama, validating the pollster models.
  • The era of the Northeastern Republican is over. There are no more GOP congressional seats in New England.
  • In 2004, Bush claimed a mandate and “political capital” on the strength of a 35 EV and 3 million voters (2%) margin of victory over Kerry. Obama has a 200 EV, 7 million popular vote (6%) margin of victory over McCain. Obama also earned 707,793 (and counting) more votes than Bush in 2004. Turnout shattered all records.
  • The world celebrates Obama’s victory – and the unity and outpouring of love for America worldwide reminds me a lot of the days following 9-11, which was the last time the world, especially the muslim world, spoke and stood as one in solidarity with us. Obama will be the Leader of the Free World that President Bush could have been, should have been.

  • Salaam

    In Alaska, we had another kind of Bradley effect. Voters apparently lied in the exit polls about voting for Ted Stevens. Nobody wanted to admit that they voted for the convicted felon.

  • Taha Raja

    A long journey to heal the dvisiveness and polarizing politics started yesterday. I was very pleased with the tone and the leadership shown by Obama in his speach yesterday. Instead of talking about him and his victory, he spoke about the long journey of sacrifice, hard work and unification that lies ahead. Democrats take head, this is not the time to celebrate but rather an opportunity to make history that lasts a generation! Instead of reveling in the victory it is time to think long and hard for how do we make this party the party of USA for the next generation. Do we get drunk on power like every party that has come to power has done so including Clinton towards the end or do we stay vigil on a dawn of a new era and take the opportunity to lead in a pragmatic and caring way.
    Mandate or no mandate, what matters is leadership and the choices Obama and the party makes to lead USA to the next generation of global leadership.
    “The journey is long and climb is steep”, indeed!

  • Zeba

    Aziz – – I am so glad that you were right about IN – and sorry that you were wrong about GA. GA would have been a spectacular win.
    re: OH, PA, VA, FL and MI – – he won them all – with comfortable margins – how wonderfully amazing! The most targeted Muslim American efforts were in these 5 states. Other active Muslim American efforts were IN and GA to the best of my knowledge.
    My projected number was up at ~370 for Obama – he didn’t hit that – but 350’s nothing to scoff at.
    I hope InshAllah this is the dawning of a new day for Americans and for Muslim Americans. We have had a rough ride since 9/11 – but hope is on the up and up.
    What we saw last night was a celebration (and a sigh of relief) – and hopefully – just the beginning of brighter days to come – InshAllah!

  • Ali Zakir

    All the history-making aside, what does City of Brass have to say about Michelle’s outfit?

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