As I was putting together my pieces on the “faith factor” and the vice presidential candidates I found surprised myself. The logic of my own analysis pointed to two men I was not much thinking about.
Obama will chose Joe Biden. I must say, if I’d drawn up a veep list a few list a few months ago, Biden wouldn’t have even made the top ten. He’s a Washington insider and a two-time failed presidential candidate who represents a safe Democratic state (Delaware). But here’s why I think Obama might just go there. The main reason he makes most top ten lists these days is his experience with foreign affairs. What became clear to me was that Biden is probably the best pick in terms of religious politics. Obama desperately needs to retain his lead among Catholics and improve upon John Kerry’s showing. But choosing a pro-choice Catholic could backfire because the Bishops and others will attack him or her for being a bad Catholic. Choosing a full-blown pro-life Catholic would alienate pro-choice, independent women and Hillary voters. Biden is pro-choice but got a low rating from abortion rights groups (60% in 2007, 39% in 2003). In other words, he’s Catholic enough to appeal to Catholics, pro-life enough to avoid Bishop attacks, and pro-choice enough to satisfy Hillary voters.

My Republican prediction: McCain will chose Tim Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota. He needs desperately to strengthen his pull with evangelicals but the two most often-discussed options — Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee — have serious baggage. Romney is a Mormon and therefore loses a big chunk of evangelicals; Huckabee is distrusted by economic conservatives. Pawlenty is evangelical, from a swing state, and without the baggage of Romney or Huckabee.
Of course McCain and Obama will be weighing factors other than faith politics. So if Biden and Pawlenty are not chosen, it will obviously be because the candidates chose to emphasize other factors, and not because my predictions were absurdly naive and ill informed.