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The final exit polls pointed to a stunning conclusion: one ingredient to Obama’s victory was improvement among the most devoutly religious voters.
Obama got 43% of weekly church-goers vs. 55% for McCain. In 2004, Bush got 61% vs. 39% for Kerry.
What this means is that Bush beat Kerry by roughly 27 million among weekly churchgoers, and McCain beat Obama by only 15 million — a stunning 12 million person shift. (Those are tentative numbers that will change as the full results come in)
These are rough numbers because not all the votes have been counted yet, but that has to count as one of the most dramatic of the changes.
Here’s my first take on how he pulled this off:
How Obama Narrowed the God Gap
“We worship an awesome God in the blue states,” Barack Obama declared during his 2004 Democratic convention keynote. Thunderous applause greeted that line, in part because Democrats felt frustrated that they’d been unfairly cast as a secular or even anti-religion party, and by the political dominance of religious conservatives.
Tonight, Obama forged a New Democratic Faith Coalition. To a large degree, he was able to make such progress with these groups because of the economy. Some pro-life voters went with Obama in spite of his positions on ‘values issues,’ not because of them.
But Obama nonetheless helped ease their way to his side through a canny set of tactics and strategies unlike anything we’ve seen from Democrats in years.
Emphasizing His Personal Faith
No Democrat since Jimmy Carter has spoken as openly, and as often, about his personal faith. In his Call to Renewal speech in 2006, Obama chastised some Democrats ‘who dismiss religion in the public square as inherently irrational or intolerant, insisting on a caricature of religious Americans that paints them as fanatical, or thinking that the very word “Christian” describes one’s political opponents, not people of faith.’
Indeed, some of his comments would have been mocked by the left had they come out of a Republican mouth. Obama’s campaign distributed literature during the primaries that described “”That day Obama felt a beckoning of the spirit and accepted Jesus Christ into his life.” One panel on the brochure, “Called to Bring Change,” declares, “We do what we do because God is with us.” Another described his belief in “the power of prayer,” and another, labeled, “Called to Christ,” stated, “Kneeling beneath that cross on the South Side, I felt I heard God’s spirit beckoning me. I submitted myself to His will, and dedicated myself to discovering His truth and carrying out His works.”
The Rise of the Religious Left
Obama’s religious outreach efforts were orders of magnitude greater than John Kerry’s. The campaign’s religious outreach arm has initiated 950 “American values” house parties. Initially, the campaign had hoped for a significant turnout of moderate evangelicals, especially among the young. That apparently happened in a few key states such as Ohio and Indiana.
Just as significant, the efforts paid dividends among Mainline Protestants, a heretofore Republican-leaning group that apparently went for Obama. Senator Obama’s frequent discussions of his personal faith seemed targeted at evangelicals but may have given comfort as well to traditional mainliners. “Obama planting seeds in the evangelical garden has borne fruit in the mainline garden,” says Mara Vanderslice, founder of a progressive religious group Matthew25 and religious outreach director for John Kerry’s 2004 campaign.
Just as important, a bevy of ‘religious left’ groups sprouted up since 2004 which ran ads and organized grass roots activity in battleground states. Among the newcomers on the scene: Catholics United, Catholics in Alliance for the Common Good, Mattew25, Faith in Public Life, Network of Spiritual Progressives, and Red Letter Christians.
As the campaign went on it became clear that many moderate evangelicals and Catholics agreed with Obama on the economy and the Iraq war but couldn’t get past his consistently pro-choice views. As conservatives hammered Obama on his opposition to the born alive bill, he could see moderate evangelicals and possibly Catholics slipping away. At the urging of progressive pro-life activists, the campaign began talking about an ‘abortion reduction’ agenda — helping reduce unintended pregnancies through education and birth control, and providing financial assistance to pregnant mothers to make it easier for them to carry a baby to term. They included language in the Democratic platform suggesting as such and Obama touted the idea in a few comments during debates. Dial-ometers soared when, during the third debate, he emphasized common ground on abortion and ‘sacred sex.’
The Vice Presidential Pick
McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin created an opportunity for Obama. She revved up the evangelical base (possible by end of the night we’ll be saying the ‘traditionally Republican core of the evangelical base – or some other qualifier) but created greater concerns among mainline protestants, a group that had leaned Republican.
Meanwhile, Obama’s selection of Joe Biden was meant to improve his chances with white Catholics — not because Biden is a theological conservative but because he’s a cultural Catholic. Over and over, Biden tied the ticket’s economic messages to Catholic language– emphasizing, for instance, ‘the dignity of work.’ This particularly seemed to help in the Catholic areas of Pennsylvania, where they know Biden well.