John McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin has scrambled the religious dynamics of the presidential race, possibly taking some groups out of play but putting some new ones in play.
THE OLD RELIGIOUS-POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
Before the Palin pick, the basic religious fault-lines were:
-A dispirited evangelical base combined with Democratic candidate Barack Obama’s strong personal faith meant that a big chunk of moderate evangelicals were up for grabs.
The Catholic vote was divided, but the Democrats had made a bet that Joe Biden could help.

Democrats were edging toward a position on abortion that would appeal to moderate evangelicals and Catholics – pro choice and yet in favor of “abortion reduction.”
Jews were shifting a bit more toward Sen. McCain.
THE INTERVENING NEWS
The selection of Gov. Palin has transformed religious conservatives from depressed McCain voters to enthusiastic McCain-Palin activists. The base is now plenty energized.
The Republicans passed the most antiabortion platform ever, calling for a ban on all abortions (even in cases of rape and incest) and a ban on all fetal stem-cell research.
The Democrats have responded to the combination of Gov. Palin’s new job and the platform by running ads that talk only about abortion rights and not about abortion reduction.
THE NEW RELIGIOUS-POLTICAL LANDSCAPE
Moderate evangelicals may now be slipping away from Sen. Obama. The Palin pick and, just as importantly, the Obama campaign’s apparent decision to drop the abortion-reduction language from their ads and push a sharp contrast with antiabortion forces may help with moderate pro-choice women but it will alienate moderate evangelicals.
Catholics? I suspect that Gov. Palin’s antiabortion “hockey mom” appeal will be quite attractive to many working-class Catholics. On the other hand, she’s “ex-Catholic,” having left the church at 13 and her strong evangelical cast may feel awkward. Sen. Biden will now have to work twice as hard.
As for Jews, Palin’s evangelicalism may rub some the wrong way. Gov. Palin signed a Christian Heritage Week into law and her church recently hosted the leader of Jews for Jesus.
Last but not least, this scrambles the battle for “mainline Christians.” With all the fuss over evangelicals, we tend to forget that mainline Christians – non-evangelical Methodists, Lutherans, Presbyterians and others — account for about 18% of the electorate.
So far in this campaign, Sen. Obama has been underperforming with this group. Mainliners identify themselves as more Democratic than Republican (50%-39%) and they strongly dislike President George W. Bush, disapproving of his performance 61% to 32%, according to a recent Pew Religion Forum poll. But Sen. Obama has been running about even with Sen. McCain.
Mainliners are more liberal than evangelicals or Catholics on social issues like abortion and gay marriage, but they are more moderate or conservative on economics. For instance, 64% of mainliners support civil unions for gays compared with 62% among white Catholics and 35% among evangelicals. Sixty nine percent of mainline Protestants want abortion to be mostly legal, compared with 51% for white Catholics and 33% for evangelicals.
On the other hand, 53% of them favor government-funded health care compared with 58% among evangelicals and 62% among white Catholics.
In other words, the strong antiabortion position of the Republicans creates a bit opportunity for Sen. Obama to increase his appeal among mainliners. But there’s a catch. In the past, while they’ve been more liberal on social issues, they tended to care more about economics and foreign policy. Though increasingly antiwar (like the rest of the population) this group has traditionally championed fiscal responsibility and strong defense.
So far, Sen. McCain has put far more emphasis on cutting wasteful government spending and emphasized national defense more, which may be why he’s doing so well with mainliners.
Sen. Obama’s position on abortion won’t hurt with mainliners, and this group may be tiring of the power of the evangelical right. But to take advantage of that opening, Sen. Obama is likely to have to emphasize fiscal discipline and foreign policy muscle along with his social liberalism.
Reprinted from The Wall Street Journal Online