One of the most popular parlor games right now — being played in sacristies and vestibules and parking lots across this great land — is figuring out who will be the next Archbishop (and, presumably, Cardinal Archbishop) of New York.

Pat Rice gets into the act at the St. Louis Beacon:

As Cardinal Edward Egan of New York approaches retirement, the names of two former St. Louis-area bishops are being bandied about as possible replacements. The first is Atlanta Archbishop Wilton D. Gregory, 60, the former bishop of Belleville who left in 2004. If Gregory were named, he would become the first African-American cardinal.

Another beloved former St. Louis region bishop is also being mentioned — Milwaukee Archbishop Timothy M. Dolan, 58, who left St. Louis in 2002. For years, church leaders have expected this joyful priest to be named to an archdiocese where he would be named a cardinal.

Some astute Vatican watchers say Gregory tops the list of American archbishops that Pope Benedict XVI might chose to lead the New York archdiocese’s 2.56 million Catholics.

Who knows the name of the next New York archbishop? The pope, if he has decided.

Traditionally, bishops forward names to the papal nuncio who, along with his American staff, checks references and conducts interviews. (Dolan used to work in that office.) Since 2002, the candidates’ vetting has been more intense. Eventually, a bishops’ committee and the nuncio come up with three names. Then, a committee of cardinals makes its recommendations.

That committee met in Rome last Thursday. Cardinal Justin F. Rigali of Philadelphia, formerly of St. Louis, attended last week’s meeting. But the group’s closely held discussion for New York may have been made months ago

After the pope selects a name, his secretary of state telegraphs the nuncio, Archbishop Pietro Sambi.

The telegraph is in a code that only the nuncio and his secretary can break. In turn, Sambi telephones the nominee and offers him the job. Rigali was an exception to this process. He had been working in Rome, and Pope John Paul II called him to his office to tell him of his appointment. When he returned to his desk, the airline ticket was waiting.

The nominee can say no, but that is unusual.

The nuncio gives the nominee a week or so to envision himself in the new post, study stats on the new diocese and in some cases find it on the map. The nuncio orders the man to keep silent. Most bishops don’t tell their family or secretary until the afternoon before Rome’s public announcement.

St. Louis Archbishop Raymond Burke told his sister on Thanksgiving Day, 2004, five days before the papal announcement. Some bishops tell stories about using a public phone to make plane reservations for fear that their staff might overhear them. Of course, that was before online reservations and mobile phones.

A few days before the announcement, the nuncio will formally phone New York’s current archbishop.

The day before the naming announcement, Sambi’s office will fax the name to all bishops who lead U.S. dioceses. These faxes are “for the bishops’ eyes only.” Stamped on the letter are the words “pontifical secret” with the prohibition that bishops may tell no one of the decision, under pain of excommunication.

The name can be changed after the man is told he has the job, and sometimes it has.

Nothing is sure until noon of appointment day when just off St. Peter’s Square, behind the white columns of the Sala Stampa — the Vatican Press Office — officials hand out the announcement.

The pope may not have made his decision yet. If he has, the announcement could come as soon at Tuesday noon, Rome time. Highly placed sources who declined to be named expect an announcement by mid-June. However, anticipation might extend until the pope returns from his summer vacation.

This appointment of the archbishop to the world’s media capital, the seat of the United Nations, might be the most influential that Benedict will make.

On May 11, Egan, 76 marked his eighth anniversary as New York archbishop. Each Catholic bishop in the world must offer the pope his resignation on his 75th birthday. Egan had that birthday, April 2, 2007. No one expected Egan’s resignation to be accepted until after the recent papal visit and until Egan has had a few weeks to host thank-you parties for the visit’s volunteers.

The next New York archbishop would work without being named a cardinal until Benedict again confers red hats at a religious ceremony called a consistory. That likely would occur in 2009 or later in Rome. On June 29 in Rome at a lower-key assembly, Benedict will bestow the wool white and black pallium, the strap-like shoulder insignia of a metropolitan archbishop, on archbishops from around the world who have been appointed since last July. If the New York post is filled by then, the new man would be among them.

There’s a lot more, well worth reading, at the link. Take a look.

Personally, my money would be on Dolan. If I were a betting man. Which I’m not. I’m just sayin.’