According to the Roman Catholic Church, the arduous and enigmatic process of electing a new Pontiff, known as the Papal Conclave, will begin on May 7. 

Recent numbers of the College of Cardinals show that approximately 135 cardinals, all under the age of 80, are eligible to vote on behalf of the 1.4-billion-member Church. Although there is no preconceived time for the Sistine Chapel to blow white smoke, the last two Conclaves show this could be a swift process. 

The sanctimonious process lasted only two days in 2005 (Pope Benedict) and 2013 (Pope Francis). However, when Cardinals convene to elect the 267th leader of the Roman Catholic Church, the process could take longer because many of these Cardinals have not met each other. 

Director of the Holy See Press Office, Matteo Bruni, advised global media that May 7 was chosen for that reason. Allowing the Cardinals to get to know one another and the targeted considerations for the Holy See itself opens the doors of conversation in hopes of a smooth and succinct process. 

Although the Church has 252 Cardinals, only 135 are eligible to vote for Francis’ successor because of their age. The time-honored process requires a two-thirds vote to take hold. The vote occurs at least twice daily until the College of Cardinals reaches a majority consensus. 

But is there a consensus already? Based on numerous reports, including a few Vegas betting sites, three individuals are considered the odds-on favorite to be selected among their brethren. 

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, is the current Vatican Secretary of State. He understands the diplomacy required to be the Pope. Additionally, his keen understanding of both former Pontiffs has allowed him to see how tradition and progression influenced the Holy See. 

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, is a pastoral candidate who has recently made headlines for supporting the Catholic Church’s stances on the Israel-Hamas conflict. He even visited Gaza to bless Catholics on both sides of the war. 

Another popular selection is Cardinal Luis Tagle, 67, from the Philippines. His remarkably progressive stances on accepting people from all walks of life, specifically the LGBTQ+ community and divorced Catholics, have earned him the moniker of the “Asian Francis.” 

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, 65, president of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar, opposes Tagle. In 2023, he gained global praise and ire for leading African bishops in a unanimous rejection of “Fiducia Supplicans,” a declaration the Vatican issued that included guidelines on the blessings of people in same-sex relationships. If either one is shouted following the Senior Cardinal Deacon shouting “Habemus Papum” (“We have a Pope”), it will be the first time a man of color has been elected Pope in the modern era, over 2,000 years ago. 

It all still feels quite unpredictable,” said Lucetta Scaraffia, a church historian and former Vatican magazine Women Church World editor. “Newspapers will say that Parolin is the strongest contender, but newspapers are running their conclave,” she said, referring to Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state. None of the talked-about front-runners was a “given,” she added.