Canonist Ed Peters:

Nothing here proves the accusations against Maciel, which he has repeatedly denied; nor does it force the conclusion that CDF believes the accusations; in fact, we do not even know whether CDF is using the word "penance" with a sanctions-connotation. As American lawyers would say, there is wiggle-room in the statement, and it is possible that today we see Maciel joining the sad list of holy men and women who, over the centuries, have been vilified by the world and mistreated by ecclesiastical authority.

On the other hand, Rome is not in the habit of publicly telling successful, high-profile Church leaders to go off and spend their lives in private penance. It is possible that CDF examined the Maciel case, found within it evidence of grave misconduct yet, like the farmer who discovered weeds growing amid the wheat (Matt XIII), decided that uprooting the evil now would harm the innocent; if so, it seems, CDF has directed Maciel to especially prepare, trusting in the infinite mercy of Christ, for the day when every deed, and every aspect of every deed, will be made plain to all.