{"id":113,"date":"2009-01-01T09:23:46","date_gmt":"2009-01-01T09:23:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.beliefnet.com\/tonyjones\/2009\/01\/the-toxin-puzzle-keith.html"},"modified":"2009-01-01T09:23:46","modified_gmt":"2009-01-01T09:23:46","slug":"the-toxin-puzzle-keith","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/tonyjones\/2009\/01\/the-toxin-puzzle-keith.html","title":{"rendered":"The Toxin Puzzle (Keith)"},"content":{"rendered":"

You are feeling extremely lucky. You have just been approached by an eccentric
\nbillionaire who has offered you the following deal. He places before you a vial of toxin that, if
\nyou drink it, will make you painfully ill for a day, but will not threaten your life or
\nhave any lasting effects. (Your spouse,
\na crack biochemist, confirms the properties of the toxin.) The billionaire will pay you one million
\ndollars tomorrow morning if, at midnight tonight, you intend<\/b><\/i><\/u> to drink the
\ntoxin tomorrow afternoon. He emphasizes
\nthat you need not drink the toxin to receive the money; in fact, the money will
\nalready be in your bank account hours before the time for drinking it arrives,
\nif you succeed. (This is confirmed by
\nyour daughter, a lawyer, after she examines the legal and financial documents
\nthat the billionaire has signed.) All
\nyou have to do is sign the agreement and then intend at midnight tonight to
\ndrink the stuff tomorrow afternoon. You
\nare perfectly free to change your mind after receiving the money and not drink
\nthe toxin. (The presence or absence of
\nthe intention is to be determined by the latest ‘mind-reading’ brain scanner
\nand computing device designed by the great Doctor X. As a cognitive scientist, materialist, and
\nfaithful former student of Doctor X, you have no doubt that the machine will
\ncorrectly detect the presence or absence of the relevant intention.)
\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Thus begins Gregory Kavka’s short classic, “The Toxin Puzzle” (Analysis<\/i> 43 (1983): 33-36).<\/p>\n

Suppose you could really use one million dollars. Well, come to think of it, we should perhaps start
\nraising that amount in retellings of Kavka’s puzzle to account for inflation –
\nto avoid a Dr. Evil-style embarrassment<\/a>
\ndown the line–though I<\/i><\/b><\/u> could still really use a paltry million dollars! So, let’s say this is an eccentric multi-billionaire
\nwhose offer is for $10<\/b><\/i><\/u> million. That
\nshould let the example keep its punch for quite a number of years into the
\nfuture. So, you can really use $10
\nmillion, and if the offer was simply to get that money if you drink the toxin,
\nyou would happily do it. Now, you might
\nthink the offer being made to you is even better than a simple payment for
\ndrinking the toxin, because, the way it’s set up, you can have your cake and,
\nwell, avoid puking it up, too: You can intend to drink the toxin at midnight
\ntonight, pocket the money, and then change your mind and never drink the toxin. But as they think it over, most people start
\nto realize things might not be that simple. If you’ll know full well at midnight that you will have no reason at all
\nto drink the toxin tomorrow afternoon – by then, you’ll either have the money
\nor you won’t, and, either way, drinking the toxin will simply make you sick
\nwhile providing no financial benefit – well, then, maybe pocketing the money
\nmight not be so easy. (Oh, that fiendish
\nbillionaire!) The question to ponder is:
\nGiven that set-up…<\/p>\n

Can you form the intention?<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n


\n<\/p>\n

Kavka realizes that there are some gimmicky ways of coming to have
\nthe intention, and rules these ways out:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

\n

At this point, your son, a strategist for the Pentagon,
\nmakes a useful suggestion.  <\/span>Why not bind
\nyourself to drink the stuff tomorrow, by today making irreversible arrangements
\nthat will give you sufficient independent incentive to drink it?  <\/span>You might promise someone who would not later
\nrelease you from the promise that you will drink the toxin tomorrow
\nafternoon.  <\/span>Or you could sign a legal
\nagreement obligating you to donate all your financial assets (including the
\nmillion if you win it) to your least favourite political party, if you do not
\ndrink it.  <\/span>You might even hire a hitman
\nto kill you if you do not swallow the toxin. 
\n<\/span>This would assure you of a day of misery, but also of becoming
\nrich.  <\/span>Unfortunately, your daughter the
\nlawyer, who has read the contract carefully, points out that arrangement of
\nsuch external incentives is ruled out, as are such alternative gimmicks as hiring a
\nhypnotist to implant the intention, forgetting the main relevant facts of the
\nsituation, and so forth.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

Oh, that fiendish billionaire!  <\/span>If I’m understanding that “and so forth”
\ncorrectly, the question we’re left with is: If you really want that $10
\nmillion, can you, just by an act of the will, summon up the intention to drink
\nthe toxin, while fully realizing that when the time comes to drink it, you will have
\nabsolutely no reason to do so, and a fairly strong reason not to?  <\/span>For now, I just leave that as a question for
\nyou to ponder…<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

You are feeling extremely lucky. You have just been approached by an eccentric billionaire who has offered you the following deal. He places before you a vial of toxin that, if you drink it, will make you painfully ill for a day, but will not threaten your life or have any lasting effects. 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