{"id":69,"date":"2008-06-30T17:22:32","date_gmt":"2008-06-30T17:22:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.beliefnet.com\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/06\/how-many-obamagelicals-are-the.html"},"modified":"2008-06-30T17:22:32","modified_gmt":"2008-06-30T17:22:32","slug":"how-many-obamagelicals-are-the","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/06\/how-many-obamagelicals-are-the.html","title":{"rendered":"How Many Obamagelicals Are There?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The few of us who argued over the years that Democrats would be wise to court evangelicals were usually told that such a strategy was a waste of time and resources.  Those pro-life, anti-gay &#8220;fundamentalists&#8221; would never vote Democratic.<br \/>\nBarack Obama has taken a more <a href=\"http:\/\/blog.beliefnet.com\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/05\/obamas-big-chance-with-evangel.html#more\">enlightened view<\/a> courting evangelicals with a<a href=\"http:\/\/blog.beliefnet.com\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/05\/is-obama-outreligioning-the-re.html.\"> vengeance<\/a>.<br \/>\nTime to get specific: how many would-be Obamagelicals are there?<br \/>\nLet&#8217;s start with the bad news for Obama.  A recent Wall Street Journal poll had McCain winning 69% of evangelicals, Obama winning 21%, about as well as Bush did. The recent Pew Religious Landscape survey found that 52% describe themselves as conservative while only 11% describe themselves as liberal.<br \/>\n61% say abortion should be illegal all or most of the time versus 33% who say it should be legal, and more than twice as many say homosexualilty should be discouraged as said it should be &#8220;accepted.&#8221;<br \/>\nThat&#8217;s a steep cliff for a pro-choice, liberal Democrat.<br \/>\nOn the other hand, there&#8217;s much on the Christian landscape to give Democrats hope. In addition to the 11% who call thesmelves liberal, an impressive 30% of evangelicals call themselves politically moderate. And, according to Pew:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Only 29% of evangelicals believe the country is headed in the right direction. <\/li>\n<li>57% said we should go deeper in debt to help the poor. <\/li>\n<li>48% say they want bigger government (41% want smaller). <\/li>\n<li>54% want stricter environmental laws. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So how many evangelicals are really in play?  Is this a small sliver of Jim Wallis clones or a massive Great Awakening of would-be Obamagelicals?<br \/>\nFirst, a few points of historical comparison. John Kerry won 22% of white evangelicals, while Clinton in 1996 won 32%.  If Kerry had merely hit Clinton levels, instead of getting 5.8 million white evangelical votes, he would have gotten 9 million, a pickup of more than 3 million votes, giving him a popular vote victory.<br \/>\nThat Pew number &#8212; the 41% of evangelicals who say they&#8217;re moderate or liberal &#8212; hints at an even bigger upside. If Kerry had gotten 41% of white evangelicals,* he would have pulled 11.5 million votes, an extra 5.7 million votes.<br \/>\nAll of this is by way of saying that even if you assume that not a single conservative evangelical votes for Obama, he still stands to shift millions of votes into his column by working hard for evangelical support.  He need not win over those who view Democrats as anti-Christian and pro-terrorist; he just needs to win those who dislike Bush, want bigger government and consider themselves moderate.<br \/>\nHow hard can that be?<br \/>\nIn my next post, I&#8217;ll discuss what he needs to do to attract them.<br \/>\n*Wonky footnote: the Pew survey used a different methodology than the 2004 exit polls.  Specifically, they talk about membership of evangelical churches, which may include some African Americans (though most were classified as being in historically black churches)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The few of us who argued over the years that Democrats would be wise to court evangelicals were usually told that such a strategy was a waste of time and resources. Those pro-life, anti-gay &#8220;fundamentalists&#8221; would never vote Democratic. Barack Obama has taken a more enlightened view courting evangelicals with a vengeance. Time to get&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How Many Obamagelicals Are There? - Steven Waldman<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/06\/how-many-obamagelicals-are-the.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How Many Obamagelicals Are There? - Steven Waldman\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The few of us who argued over the years that Democrats would be wise to court evangelicals were usually told that such a strategy was a waste of time and resources. Those pro-life, anti-gay &#8220;fundamentalists&#8221; would never vote Democratic. Barack Obama has taken a more enlightened view courting evangelicals with a vengeance. Time to get&hellip;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/06\/how-many-obamagelicals-are-the.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Steven Waldman\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2008-06-30T17:22:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"swaldman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"How Many Obamagelicals Are There? - Steven Waldman","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/06\/how-many-obamagelicals-are-the.html","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"How Many Obamagelicals Are There? - Steven Waldman","og_description":"The few of us who argued over the years that Democrats would be wise to court evangelicals were usually told that such a strategy was a waste of time and resources. Those pro-life, anti-gay &#8220;fundamentalists&#8221; would never vote Democratic. Barack Obama has taken a more enlightened view courting evangelicals with a vengeance. Time to get&hellip;","og_url":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/06\/how-many-obamagelicals-are-the.html","og_site_name":"Steven Waldman","article_published_time":"2008-06-30T17:22:32+00:00","author":"swaldman","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/06\/how-many-obamagelicals-are-the.html","url":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/06\/how-many-obamagelicals-are-the.html","name":"How Many Obamagelicals Are There? - Steven Waldman","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/#website"},"datePublished":"2008-06-30T17:22:32+00:00","dateModified":"2008-06-30T17:22:32+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/#\/schema\/person\/f14bd19925fcfcd0bd7c74a678fddded"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/06\/how-many-obamagelicals-are-the.html#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/06\/how-many-obamagelicals-are-the.html"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/06\/how-many-obamagelicals-are-the.html#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"How Many Obamagelicals Are There?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/","name":"Steven Waldman","description":"Author of 'Founding Faith'","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/#\/schema\/person\/f14bd19925fcfcd0bd7c74a678fddded","name":"swaldman","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/wp-content\/wphb-cache\/gravatar\/e7f\/e7f50c10d0832a00d2b7690a72d45b5ex96.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/wp-content\/wphb-cache\/gravatar\/e7f\/e7f50c10d0832a00d2b7690a72d45b5ex96.jpg","caption":"swaldman"},"description":"Steven Waldman is the Editor-in-Chief and Co-Founder of Beliefnet. He's also the author of the Founding Faith: Politics, Providence, and the Birth of Religious Freedom in America, which has been published by Random House. Before co-founding Beliefnet in 1999, Waldman was a political journalist, serving as National Editor of U.S. News & World Report and National Correspondent for Newsweek. His writings have appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, National Review, The Atlantic, Slate, and many others.","url":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/author\/swaldman"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}