{"id":445,"date":"2008-11-02T16:44:12","date_gmt":"2008-11-02T16:44:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.beliefnet.com\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/11\/how-john-mccain-could-have-won.html"},"modified":"2008-11-02T16:44:12","modified_gmt":"2008-11-02T16:44:12","slug":"how-john-mccain-could-have-won","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/11\/how-john-mccain-could-have-won.html","title":{"rendered":"John McCain’s Path to Victory"},"content":{"rendered":"

I’m struck by how many analysts are saying that if McCain loses, it was absolutely inevitable, a result of the financial meltdown.
\nI don’t buy it. The meltdown certainly made it harder, along with the weak economy that pre-dated the stock market drop. But there was a path for McCain — and it involved not caring so much about the views of the Religious Right.
\nLook at three of the swing tribes <\/a>profiled in our 12 Tribes study: the “Whitebread Protestants,” “Convertible Catholics,” and the “Moderate Evangelicals.”
\nRespondents were asked whether they wanted to have fewer government services “and reduce spending accordingly” or the more services. The percentages saying they wanted fewer services and less spending:
\n\u2022\tConvertible Catholics: 2004: 26%, 2008: 38%
\n\u2022\tWhitebread Protestants: 2004: 31%, 2008: 37%
\n\u2022\tModerate Evangelicals: 2004: 23%, 2008: 39%
\nThis survey was conducted before the financial collapse so those numbers might have changed but it shows that the basic instincts of these swing groups are economically conservative. In a way, these groups are tailor made for a liberal Republican, or potentially a “maverick Republican.”
\nMcCain would have had to:<\/p>\n