{"id":422,"date":"2008-10-28T08:21:23","date_gmt":"2008-10-28T08:21:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.beliefnet.com\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/10\/wierd-prediction-obama-could-w.html"},"modified":"2008-10-28T08:21:23","modified_gmt":"2008-10-28T08:21:23","slug":"wierd-prediction-obama-could-w","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/10\/wierd-prediction-obama-could-w.html","title":{"rendered":"Wierd Prediction: Obama Wins the Electoral Vote But Lose the Popular Vote"},"content":{"rendered":"

Judging from the finger-pointing going on within the McCain campaign (the latest being the top advisor who called Palin a “whack job”) it sounds like both sides think Obama is going to win.
\nExcuse me: but today’s Gallup poll now has McCain within the margin of error (49%-47%) when using the traditional turnout estimates. There are now four reputable pollsters that put the race within five points (Gallup, Rasmussen, Zogby, IBD\/TIPP). Just four days ago, Obama was winning 51%-44%
\nYet all of those cool interactive maps still have Obama winning the electoral college handily and maintaining strong leads in must-win states like Pennsylvania. How could both be true? The most common explanation is that a) these polls are wrong b) the state polls are lagging and those races will tighten too.
\nBut there’s a third possibility: Obama is doing well in the battleground states because he’s spent a ton of time, money and volunteer power there. In terms of religion, what i”m hearing is that the McCain ‘ground game” (i.e. get out the vote efforts) will pale in comparison to Bush 2004 and Obama’s this year. Gallup’s poll shows Obama to be farther ahead in the “expanded” model that assumes higher turnout among first-time voters. But isn’t it possible that will be true in the states where Obama has worked hardest to register and turn out voters but not the other states?
\nIn other words, you could easily see a tightening in the national polls that isn’t<\/em> reflected fully in the battleground.
\nAll of which leads to the possibility –which I think is very real — that Obama will lose the popular vote but win the electoral college.
\nHow would the nation react to that? You?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Judging from the finger-pointing going on within the McCain campaign (the latest being the top advisor who called Palin a “whack job”) it sounds like both sides think Obama is going to win. Excuse me: but today’s Gallup poll now has McCain within the margin of error (49%-47%) when using the traditional turnout estimates. There…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"yoast_head":"\nWierd Prediction: Obama Wins the Electoral Vote But Lose the Popular Vote - Steven Waldman<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/10\/wierd-prediction-obama-could-w.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Wierd Prediction: Obama Wins the Electoral Vote But Lose the Popular Vote - Steven Waldman\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Judging from the finger-pointing going on within the McCain campaign (the latest being the top advisor who called Palin a “whack job”) it sounds like both sides think Obama is going to win. 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There…\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/10\/wierd-prediction-obama-could-w.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Steven Waldman\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2008-10-28T08:21:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"swaldman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Wierd Prediction: Obama Wins the Electoral Vote But Lose the Popular Vote - Steven Waldman","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/stevenwaldman\/2008\/10\/wierd-prediction-obama-could-w.html","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Wierd Prediction: Obama Wins the Electoral Vote But Lose the Popular Vote - Steven Waldman","og_description":"Judging from the finger-pointing going on within the McCain campaign (the latest being the top advisor who called Palin a “whack job”) it sounds like both sides think Obama is going to win. 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