{"id":11539,"date":"2012-07-05T13:26:06","date_gmt":"2012-07-05T17:26:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.beliefnet.com\/news\/?p=11539"},"modified":"2012-07-05T15:35:15","modified_gmt":"2012-07-05T19:35:15","slug":"irans-mad-ayatollahs-should-be-given-the-bomb-one-very-very-bad-idea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/news\/2012\/07\/irans-mad-ayatollahs-should-be-given-the-bomb-one-very-very-bad-idea","title":{"rendered":"Iran’s mad imams should be given nukes?"},"content":{"rendered":"

With the Iranian army practicing mock missile strikes on U.S. bases in Afghanistan, China only begrudgingly joining the European Union\u2019s sanctions against Tehran, and the Israeli air force calculating firing solutions on Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities, the headline in Foreign Affairs<\/a> <\/em>was startling: \u201cWhy Iran Should Get the Bomb.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>For more than a decade, the specter of a nuclear-armed Iran has frightened the world. After all, this is a regime that believes that if it can topple Western civilization, Iran will usher in the \u201csecond coming\u201d of the Shi\u2019ite messiah \u2013 five-year-old Mu\u1e25ammad ibn al-\u1e24asan al-Mahd\u012b,<\/a> the long-awaited twelfth Imam, who vanished into a well in 941 A.D.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s fundamentalists teach that al-Mahd\u012b will end his \u201cocculation\u201d or 1,000 years of\u00a0invisibility — and will return to lead Iran\u2019s restoration of the ancient Persian Empire and the imposition of worldwide Islam.<\/p>\n

Speaking at a Tehran conference on Thursday,<\/a> the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Ali Larijani, declared “the time has come for the disappearance of the West and the Zionist regime \u2013 which are two dark spots in the present era \u2013 from the face of the universe.”<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Audio tapes proclaiming the coming of al-Mahdi<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Iran\u2019s Press TV quoted him as calling America and Israel the world\u2019s “prime sources of tyranny and gloom.” Meanwhile, Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad\u00a0<\/a>has declared that\u00a0America is blocking al-Mahdi’s return.<\/p>\n

As Larijani was calling for the obliteration of Western civilization, out in the vital oil tanker shipping lanes of the Persian Gulf, Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were conducting \u201cThe Missiles of the Prophet\u201d naval exercises\u00a0at the Strait of Hormuz \u2013 demonstrating that they can hit targets in Israel, Afghanistan and Europe.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe show of force is designed to coincide with the start in Istanbul of a new set of talks on Iran\u2019s nuclear program, where Tehran faces the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany,\u201d notes Amir Taheri in the New York Post.<\/a> <\/em>The talks, he writes, are pointless.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt must be clear to anyone who has followed all this that Iran is acting in accordance with a famous Persian proverb: Leading the horse to water and bringing it back thirsty. <\/em>That is,\u201d writes Taheri, \u201cTehran will only make time-consuming gestures toward letting the \u2018horse\u2019 drink \u2013 but will never actually agree to stop the core of its nuclear program, which consists of enriching as much uranium as it can at higher and higher levels.”<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inspects a nuclear facility<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Iran\u2019s ultimate goal, says Taheri,\u00a0is to provoke a nuclear holocaust and pave the way for al-Mahdi, the \u201cHidden Imam\u201d to re-establish Islam to its original, purest message, reveal the obscure secrets of the Holy Quran and make Iran\u2019s Shi\u2019ite brand of Islam the worldwide religion.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe whole world will be brought into submission,\u201d writes Amir Moezzi in the Encyclopedia Iranica.<\/em><\/a> \u201cPowers of inequality and obliviousness will be all eliminated, the earth will be inflated with justice and wisdom, and mortality revitalized by knowledge.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Wall poster announcing a lecture in London<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

But blocking al-Mahdi\u2019s return<\/a> are\u00a0not only\u00a0the \u201cGreat Satan,\u201d the United States,\u00a0but also\u00a0Israel, which Ahmadinejad describes as a “fake regime” that “must be wiped off the map<\/a>,”\u00a0reports the New York Times.<\/em><\/p>\n

In his annual appearances at the UN,\u00a0Iran’s president regularly\u00a0lectures the world\u2019s diplomats that\u00a0Iran is divinely called\u00a0to pave the way for this Shi\u2019ite messiah, who will \u201cdry the roots of all injustice in the world<\/a>\u201d and obliterate all other religions.<\/p>\n

Toward that end, Iran is developing missiles that, according to WikiLeaks<\/a>-released secret diplomatic cables, are worrisome even to Iran\u2019s closest ally, Russia \u2013 which told the U.S. \u201cthat Iran\u2019s latest efforts on improving the accuracy and range of its Shahab-3-class liquid-propellant missiles have produced a weapon that can reach targets in the Middle East and Southeastern Europe with an accuracy of several kilometers. However, given that they have only conventional warheads, these missiles cannot do substantial damage.\u201d<\/p>\n

So, against this backdrop, in Foreign Affairs<\/a><\/em> magazine, Professor Kenneth N. Waltz says it is time to\u00a0back off and let\u00a0Ahmadinejad develop his nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

\"Kenneth<\/a>
Kenneth Waltz<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Even strident peacenik Noam Chomsky<\/a> admits Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guards “are behind some of the deadliest terrorist attacks of the past three decades\u201d and Iran bankrolls the notorious terrorist organizations Hezbollah and Hamas.<\/p>\n

Who would hand over nukes to such opponents of world peace?<\/p>\n

Waltz, according to Columbia University \u201chas spent much of his scholarly career proposing controversial realist theories.\u201d<\/p>\n

Realist theories? Waltz is a \u201crealist\u201d \u2013 but not in the traditional sense. Waltz\u2019s kind of realism explains to small children that Bambi will be slaughtered by hunters, burned alive in an inevitable second forest fire or die a slow and painful death by intestinal parasites \u2013 rather than become the majestic new prince of the forest.<\/p>\n

Waltz has generated attention in the past with assertions that the United States military is probably unnecessary since America really doesn\u2019t have any real international enemies, that North Korea isn\u2019t a threat to anybody except its own starving and subjugated citizens, and that China doesn\u2019t really have any ambitions of invading Taiwan or trying to dominate Asia.<\/p>\n

If he had been writing essays in 1938, Waltz would have joined Neville Chamberlain\u2019s chorus that the Nazis weren\u2019t all that bad; that as soon as Hitler was through annexing Czechoslovakia and perhaps Poland, he would make good on his promise to usher in \u201cpeace in our time.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Neville Chamberlain waves Adolf Hitler’s peace promise<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Among the reasons Waltz cites for why a nuclear-armed Iran would be a good thing are:<\/p>\n

1) It would produce a more stable balance of military power in the Middle East:<\/strong> \u201cIsrael\u2019s regional nuclear monopoly, which has proved remarkably durable for the past four decades, has long fueled instability in the Middle East. It is Israel’s nuclear arsenal, not Iran’s desire for one, that has contributed most to the current crisis. In fact, by reducing imbalances in military power, new nuclear states generally produce more regional and international stability, not less.\u201d <\/em><\/p>\n

Generally?<\/em> What about when a regime doesn\u2019t follow everybody else\u2019s rules? Throughout the Cold War, a policy of \u201cMutual Assured Destruction\u201d kept NATO and the Warsaw Pact from nuking each other. It was well understood that automatic response systems were in place that would trigger a massive response\u2013 even if the attacked nation was in ashes. Had the Soviets wiped out U.S. leadership and command, the consequences would have been submarine-launched total devastation of Mother Russia.<\/p>\n

Iranian officials on the other hand do not fear such a scenario, but publicly embrace such a war obliterating civilization. A senior official in Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guard told a Tehran newspaper that the United States is within reach of Iranian attack. If the U.S. hits key targets in Iran to halt its nuclear weapons program, \u201cwe will have a crushing response,\u201d said Massoud Jazayeri<\/a>. \u201cWe will not only act in the boundaries of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf; no place in America will be safe from our attacks.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Iranian women listen to a political speech<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Sure, he knows that the U.S. response to an Iranian attack \u2013 particularly a nuclear strike \u2013 would be cataclysmic. If Iran somehow managed to explode a nuke on U.S. soil, no Russian or Chinese veto in the United Nations would prevent Tehran from becoming a smoking, radioactive ruin.<\/p>\n

\u00a0But Iran has indicated that they don\u2019t fear such a fate \u2013 it will summon al-Mahdi, that anointed child last seen\u00a0at the beginning of\u00a0the Dark Ages.<\/p>\n

Waltz also asserts:<\/p>\n

2) It would reduce the risk of war between Israel and Iran:<\/strong> \u201cIf Iran goes nuclear, Israel and Iran will deter each other, as nuclear powers always have. There has never been a full-scale war between two nuclear-armed states. Once Iran crosses the nuclear threshold, deterrence will apply, even if the Iranian arsenal is relatively small.\u201d<\/p>\n

Such a conclusion is less than unanimous. \u201cAre Iran\u2019s Leaders, Well \u2026 Crazy?\u201d ask Kimo Quaintance and Bernd Kaussler in The Diplomat<\/em><\/a> <\/em>magazine. \u201cThe most vocal supporters of preventative military strikes against Iran\u2019s nuclear weapons program claim that Iran is developing nukes to use them, rather than to deter the United States and its allies from invasion.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Ahmadinejad lecturing the UN General Assembly<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cThis inversion of the Cold War theory of nuclear deterrence assumes that Iran doesn\u2019t have the capacity for rational choice. After all, as the argument goes, if the Iranians are crazy, then the certainty of national suicide won\u2019t stop them from seizing the opportunity to unleash their new nuclear weapons on Israel.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201cA state that believes the end of the world is coming (never mind thinking it has the special responsibility to usher in Armageddon) can\u2019t be considered likely to weigh costs and benefits in any rational, self-preserving way.\u201d<\/p>\n

Waltz also writes:<\/p>\n

3) It would produce a more cautious Iran:<\/strong> \u201cHistory shows that when countries acquire the bomb, they feel increasingly vulnerable and become acutely aware that their nuclear weapons make them a potential target in the eyes of major powers. Maoist China, for example, became much less bellicose after acquiring nuclear weapons in 1964, and India and Pakistan have both become more cautious since going nuclear.\u201d<\/p>\n

But, Iran is not Russia, India, China or the other existing members of the nuclear club, notes Boston Globe<\/a><\/em> op-ed writer Jeff Jacoby. \u201cTime and again Iran has called explicitly for the extermination of Israel, while making clear that it sees nuclear weapons as a practical means to that end. \u2018The use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything,\u2019 Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani baldly explained in 2001. \u2018However, it will only harm the Islamic world. It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Former Iranian President Rafsanjani<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Remember that we\u2019re talking about Iran, a nation that doesn\u2019t even have a systematic security clearance program for its military personnel, remind Quaintance and Kessler. In the madness that is Iran today, \u201cRevolutionary pedigree and contacts to the right spheres of power are no longer sufficient to remain at the top,” so once nuclear weapons enter the mix, “existing power struggles and cabals amongst the country\u2019s maze of power centers and factions\u201d\u00a0are certain to\u00a0grow. \u201cThis begs the practical question of how the Iranian regime could assure even itself that accidental or unauthorized use wouldn\u2019t be possible. After all, it took the United States decades to achieve any real degree of the complex technical and organizational requirements that help ensure meaningful nuclear safety.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn addition to complex organizational procedures intended to assure proper chain of command for launch authorization, current U.S. nukes are secured through sophisticated encrypted arming systems that prevent unauthorized or accidental detonation, as well as high-tech tamper-proof casings to prevent the theft of the \u2018physics package\u2019 inside a warhead.\u201d<\/p>\n

Iran apparently lacks any such safeguards. What a nightmare if any imam could push the button.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Abe Foxman<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cHowever evil the Soviet Union, they were not crazy,\u201d writes Abe Foxman in the Jerusalem Post<\/em>.<\/a> In Iran, there is \u201can element of irrationality and apocalyptic thinking.”<\/p>\n

By proposing that\u00a0Iran be allowed nukes, Waltz\u00a0demonstrates that he is\u00a0“particularly out of touch.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cTaken to its logical conclusion,\u201d quips fellow \u201crealist\u201d and Foreign Relations <\/em>contributor Stephen M. Walt<\/a>, \u201cWaltz’s argument implies that the United States ought to simply give Iran a few nuclear weapons.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cJust ask the Arab states whether they agree with these conclusions,\u201d writes Foxman. \u201cThe U.S. diplomatic cables leaked by Wikileaks made clear that the Gulf States are just as concerned about an Iranian bomb as is Israel.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey see an Iran with a bomb as a nation that will try to intimidate its neighbors, make greater claims over disputed territories and try to promote Shi\u2019a interests over Sunni — in other words, a major force for instability.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd what will they do about it?\u00a0 Inevitably, some will seek their own nuclear capacity to offset Iran.”<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Iranian leader Massour Jazayeri<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

What is Iran\u2019s vision of the future? \u201cA top Ahmadinejad officer, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Kossari, who heads the political watchdog, or Security Bureau, of Iran’s armed forces, recently taunted the U.S. <\/a>when he bragged \u2018we have identified all the weak points of our enemies\u2019 and have sufficient cannon fodder — i.e., suicide operation volunteers \u2013 \u2018ready to strike at these sensitive locations.\u2019<\/p>\n

\u201cIranian television,\u201d wrote Arnaud de Borchgrave back in 2006,<\/a> \u201crecently broadcast an animated film for Iranian children glorifying suicide bombers.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAhmadinejad’s Shi’ite creed has convinced him lesser mortals can not only influence but also hasten the awaited return of the Mahdi,\u201d wrote de Borchgrave. \u201cIran’s dominant \u2018Twelver\u2019 sect holds that this will be Muhammad ibn Hasan, the righteous descendant of the Prophet Muhammad.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe is said to have gone into \u2018occlusion\u2019 in the 9th century, at age 5.<\/p>\n

\u201cHis return will be preceded by cosmic chaos, war, bloodshed and pestilence. After this cataclysmic confrontation between the forces of good and evil, the Mahdi will lead the world to an era of universal peace.<\/p>\n

De Borchgrave notes: “The ultimate promise of all Divine religions,” says Ahmadinejad, “will be fulfilled with the emergence of a perfect human being [the 12th Imam], who is heir to all prophets. He will lead the world to justice and absolute peace. Oh mighty Lord, I pray to you to hasten the emergence of your last repository, the promised one.”<\/p>\n

Ahmadinejad, \u201creckons that the return of the Imam\u201d is imminent.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen he became Iran’s sixth president since the 1979 revolution, Ahmadinejad decided to donate $20 million to the Jamkaran mosque, a popular pilgrimage site where the faithful can drop their missives to the \u2018Hidden Imam\u2019 in a holy well\u201d where the 5-year-old imam was last seen centuries ago.<\/p>\n

\u201cTehran’s working-class faithful are convinced the new president and his Cabinet signed a \u2018compact\u2019 pledging themselves to precipitate the return of the Mahdi \u2013 and dropped it down Jamkaran’s well,\u201d wrote de Borchgrave.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
The devout drop personal messages into the well<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Ahmadinejad\u00a0 believes that selflessness and martyrdom-seeking is the only way to save mankind, according to Turkish Weekly<\/em>, <\/a>“We are all obliged to keep alive the culture of martyrdom-seeking in the society.”<\/p>\n

Ahmadinejad made the remarks\u00a0while meeting with families of several suicide bombers and war veterans, telling them “martyrdom-seeking is our most effective weapon and best guarantee for our national security. Ruthless enemies who have a chronic enmity against our country and our nation have not succeeded in achieving their objectives so far thanks to the existence of this culture of martyrdom-seeking among our nation. He who is ready for martyrdom is always victorious.”<\/p>\n

Indeed,\u00a0“Martyrs enjoy the highest status of humanity in this world and the Hereafter,” said Iran’s president. “People spend tough years of strenuous work in a bid to achieve the peaks of grandeur and pride, while our dear martyrs achieved those high peaks in shortest possible time.”<\/p>\n

\u00a0Giving him nuclear weapons makes no sense.<\/p>\n

\u201cWaltz\u2019s piece,\u201d writes Foxman, \u201cis absurd on its face.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Waltz’s breezy nonchalance strikes you as outlandish, you aren’t alone,\u201d writes Jacoby in the Boston Globe.<\/a><\/em> Indeed, Daniel Pipes<\/a>, historian, political commentator, \u00a0director of the Middle East Forum and editor of Middle East Quarterly<\/em> journal, calls Waltz\u2019s article “the single most preposterous analysis by an allegedly serious strategist of the Iranian quest for a nuclear weapon.”<\/p>\n

\u201cTo the American Enterprise Institute’s Gary Schmitt , a former staff director of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence,\u201d writes Jacoby, \u201cit recalls Alfred E. Neuman’s mantra: \u2018What, me worry?\u2019<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Prince Turki al-Faisal<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cThe notion that Israel’s nuclear capability destabilizes the Middle East is almost self-refuting,\u201d continues Jacoby.\u201d As for the calming effect of an Iranian bomb, that’s hard to square with the Arab world’s alarm at the prospect : \u2018If Iran develops a nuclear weapon,\u2019 Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal has warned, \u2018we will have to follow suit.\u2019<\/p>\n

\u201cLet a regime that hungers for apocalypse and genocide get the bomb?\u201d asks Jacoby. \u201cWelcome it? Even Dr. Strangelove wouldn’t go that far.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With the Iranian army practicing mock missile strikes on U.S. bases in Afghanistan, China only begrudgingly joining the European Union\u2019s sanctions against Tehran, and the Israeli air force calculating firing solutions on Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities, the headline in Foreign Affairs was startling: \u201cWhy Iran Should Get the Bomb.\u201d For more than a decade, the specter…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":270,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fbia_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[100,1006,55,8],"tags":[2257,1561,2079,1193],"class_list":["post-11539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commentary","category-iran","category-islam","category-news","tag-iran","tag-mahmoud-ahmadinejad","tag-nuclear-proliferation","tag-nuclear-weapons"],"yoast_head":"\nIran's mad imams should be given nukes?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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