{"id":991,"date":"2015-10-10T22:59:20","date_gmt":"2015-10-10T22:59:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/lordre\/?p=991"},"modified":"2015-10-11T08:02:40","modified_gmt":"2015-10-11T08:02:40","slug":"climate-change-and-war-africa-arctic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/lordre\/2015\/10\/climate-change-and-war-africa-arctic.html","title":{"rendered":"Climate change and war, Africa to Arctic"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Cartoon,Arguments about the reality\u00a0of\u00a0climate change aside, desertification and depletion of water are undisputed\u00a0facts, as are conflicts related to growing water scarcity.<\/h2>\n

Melting of glacial ice is also a fact, and carries perhaps just as many consequences for the future of confrontation and conflict among states. Another politically\u00a0heavy consequence of climate change, it\u00a0appears to be benefiting Russia more clearly than any other power. This could also signal a correlation\u00a0between climate change and war or the spectre of war.<\/strong><\/p>\n

It’s easy\u00a0to overlook brute force realities that lead to conflicts, getting caught up in impassioned contests of ideology and rhetoric instead. The war in Syria for example<\/a> has drawn the attention of news media almost exclusively to questions about one man, President Bashar al-Assad, and his future in the country. Such a narrow vision\u00a0neglects the wider social, historic, geopolitical and natural realities\u00a0that made the complicated conflict happen. One argument exists\u00a0that the whole conflict actually began because of water shortages.<\/p>\n

Climate change and\u00a0war driven by scarcity<\/h2>\n

There are similar arguments that much of the conflict in Israel\/Palestine is related to control of water. Water is for more than just drinking. It also enables irrigation, the cultivation of crops, and with it the\u00a0supply of food to an entire population. Loss of water can mean nothing less than the annihilation of whole populations and the disintegration of states.<\/p>\n

Scientists who present global warming to the public make a prediction about something that will eventually reach out of the science classroom and affect politics. While sea levels can be expected to rise, some areas of the world may simply be rendered unlivable by civilised standards due to the heat alone. Equatorial regions may eventually witness mass evacuations, with populations fleeing the heat for Europe and North America instead. Imagine the current so-called refugee crisis affecting Europe due to war-torn regions left by Western military interventions around the world, and multiply that\u00a0by a hundred or maybe even a thousand times. You may then get an idea of the type of political shock wave global warming could\u00a0cause.<\/p>\n

Turning a greenhouse gas into a resource to avert climate change and war?<\/h2>\n

Look\u00a0much further\u00a0north, and you’ll see the same global warming melting the glacial ice in the Arctic and permafrost in Siberia. Either development is good for one country: Russia. In many ways, Russia’s leadership have bet on their nation’s energy reserves as their biggest political and economic strength, and it is a far-sighted strategy.<\/p>\n

As the icecaps retreat, new oil fields are revealed.\u00a0Russia is the country most exposed to the Arctic, with the largest military presence there, and most experienced in conquering such harsh territory. It is far ahead of the United States or any other country in its militarisation\u00a0in the Arctic and advancing large territorial claims<\/a>. This has even included planting flags of the Russian Federation<\/a> on the seabed.<\/p>\n

Melting permafrost in Siberia can cause\u00a0hidden methane gas to rush out, which can be easily ignited – or collected. Sometimes it will explode underground, creating sinkholes. While its release further accelerates the rate of global warming according to present science, there is also the possibility to extract\u00a0and use it<\/a>, adding it to a country’s natural gas reserves.\u00a0If the Russian leadership are as opportunistic in Siberia as they are in the Arctic, they will be looking to harness this would-be greenhouse gas and and\u00a0add it to their existing reserves of natural gas, ready to sell to Europe and China. Perhaps climate change and war can both be slowed\u00a0by such an action, as the CO2 emissions caused by\u00a0burning natural gas are a far less severe greenhouse gas than the methane produced by doing nothing and letting it escape.<\/p>\n

Considering the country is\u00a0so\u00a0vast, so\u00a0cold and so\u00a0eager to obtain the resources hidden under the icecaps and permafrost, global warming could only be good news for Russia’s long-term interests as a world power.<\/p>\n

In sum, there\u00a0are two predictions I would make about the future relationship between\u00a0climate change and war. First, I see a diminished and heavily burdened West that may\u00a0be forced to take perhaps billions of new residents fleeing the heat, bringing with them all sorts of politico-religious\u00a0tensions and uncertainties. Second, we will see an enlarged and more confident Russia with even greater reserves of oil and natural gas as a result of climate change.<\/p>\n

This is not to make value judgments about such developments but to predict they will happen, as is the tradition of futurists.<\/p>\n

\"hjb<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arguments about the reality\u00a0of\u00a0climate change aside, desertification and depletion of water are undisputed\u00a0facts, as are conflicts related to growing water scarcity. Melting of glacial ice is also a fact, and carries perhaps just as many consequences for the future of confrontation and conflict among states. Another politically\u00a0heavy consequence of climate change, it\u00a0appears to be benefiting…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":577,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,68,63,72,153,67,66,69],"tags":[1217,1220,1214,1223,1215,1221,1219,1216,1222,1218,1123,229,239,1224],"class_list":["post-991","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-alter-globalization","category-conflict-2","category-futurism-2","category-international-relations","category-lordre-2","category-middle-east","category-politics-2","category-violence","tag-arctic","tag-arctic-oil","tag-climate-change","tag-desertification","tag-global-warming","tag-greenhouse-gas","tag-melting-arctic-ice","tag-militarisation","tag-natural-gas","tag-political-tension","tag-refugee-crisis","tag-russia","tag-united-states","tag-water-scarcitty"],"yoast_head":"\nClimate change and war, Africa to Arctic - L'Ordre<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Climate change and war affect political tensions and even the fates of superpowers. 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Bentham","description":"Harry J. Bentham is a British futurist blogger who has been a contributor at a number of think tanks including the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies since 2013. His work at Press TV and the L'Ordre blog featured at the multi-faith Beliefnet website has gained increasing attention and praise, including in the international media. Commentaries on political and ethical controversies by Bentham have been published at the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, H+ Magazine, Dissident Voice and numerous other publications. 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