{"id":990,"date":"2008-01-08T20:44:57","date_gmt":"2008-01-08T20:44:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.beliefnet.com\/jwalking\/2008\/01\/race-polls-obama.html"},"modified":"2008-01-08T20:44:57","modified_gmt":"2008-01-08T20:44:57","slug":"race-polls-obama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/2008\/01\/race-polls-obama.html","title":{"rendered":"Race, Polls, Obama"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It now seems pretty clear that virtually all of the late polling on the Democratic side was wrong&#8230; very wrong. The <a href=\"http:\/\/rasmussenreports.com\/public_content\/politics\/election_20082\/2008_presidential_election\/new_hampshire\/election_2008_new_hampshire_democratic_primary\">last Rasmussen Report had Obama +7 over Clinton.<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/firstread.msnbc.msn.com\/archive\/2008\/01\/08\/558322.aspx\">CBS had him +7. <\/a> USA Today had Obama +13 and CNN +10.<br \/>\nWith more than 25% of New Hampshire now reporting Obama is -5. 80% of precincts still need to report. Nashua still needs to report. But this gap really is extraordinary. Chances are nil that Obama is going to win overwhelmingly.<br \/>\nWhy?<br \/>\nIt is a return to the<a href=\"http:\/\/pewresearch.org\/pubs\/408\/can-you-trust-what-polls-say-about-obamas-electoral-prospects\"> race-gap polling problems<\/a> of the 1980s and 1990s:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>This phenomenon was first noticed in the 1982 race for governor of California, where Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a black Democrat, narrowly lost to Republican George Deukmejian, despite polls showing him with a lead ranging from 9 to 22 points. The next year, African American Democrat Harold Washington barely won his race for mayor of Chicago against Republican Bernard Epton. Pre-election polls taken within the last two weeks of the campaign showed Washington with a 14-point lead.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The problem was prominent in the New York City mayoral race in 1989. David Dinkens, an African American candidate beat Republican Rudy Giuliani by only 2 points, despite leading by as much as 18 points in polls a week before the election.<br \/>\nTonight, despite all the talk of how little race matters in this campaign, it is clear that race is still a big deal in bi-racial campaigns. And it has showed up for the first time, in a measurable way, in the 2008 presidential race.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It now seems pretty clear that virtually all of the late polling on the Democratic side was wrong&#8230; very wrong. The last Rasmussen Report had Obama +7 over Clinton. CBS had him +7. USA Today had Obama +13 and CNN +10. With more than 25% of New Hampshire now reporting Obama is -5. 80% of&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Race, Polls, Obama - J Walking<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/2008\/01\/race-polls-obama.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Race, Polls, Obama - J Walking\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It now seems pretty clear that virtually all of the late polling on the Democratic side was wrong&#8230; very wrong. The last Rasmussen Report had Obama +7 over Clinton. CBS had him +7. USA Today had Obama +13 and CNN +10. With more than 25% of New Hampshire now reporting Obama is -5. 80% of&hellip;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/2008\/01\/race-polls-obama.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"J Walking\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2008-01-08T20:44:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"David Kuo\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Race, Polls, Obama - J Walking","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/2008\/01\/race-polls-obama.html","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Race, Polls, Obama - J Walking","og_description":"It now seems pretty clear that virtually all of the late polling on the Democratic side was wrong&#8230; very wrong. The last Rasmussen Report had Obama +7 over Clinton. CBS had him +7. USA Today had Obama +13 and CNN +10. With more than 25% of New Hampshire now reporting Obama is -5. 80% of&hellip;","og_url":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/2008\/01\/race-polls-obama.html","og_site_name":"J Walking","article_published_time":"2008-01-08T20:44:57+00:00","author":"David Kuo","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/2008\/01\/race-polls-obama.html","url":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/2008\/01\/race-polls-obama.html","name":"Race, Polls, Obama - J Walking","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/#website"},"datePublished":"2008-01-08T20:44:57+00:00","dateModified":"2008-01-08T20:44:57+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/#\/schema\/person\/e18271b4c5ffaa74854f9b286f9920da"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/2008\/01\/race-polls-obama.html#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/2008\/01\/race-polls-obama.html"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/2008\/01\/race-polls-obama.html#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Race, Polls, Obama"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/","name":"J Walking","description":"David Kuo blog, faith, politics, christian blog, tempting faith","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/#\/schema\/person\/e18271b4c5ffaa74854f9b286f9920da","name":"David Kuo","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/wp-content\/wphb-cache\/gravatar\/033\/03358ddc67aa385b96785ce75f483c23x96.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/wp-content\/wphb-cache\/gravatar\/033\/03358ddc67aa385b96785ce75f483c23x96.jpg","caption":"David Kuo"},"url":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/author\/dkuo"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/990\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/jwalking\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}