{"id":726,"date":"2008-07-16T12:17:58","date_gmt":"2008-07-16T12:17:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.beliefnet.com\/godometer\/2008\/07\/obama-and-evangelicals-a-modes.html"},"modified":"2008-07-16T12:17:58","modified_gmt":"2008-07-16T12:17:58","slug":"obama-and-evangelicals-a-modes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/godometer\/2008\/07\/obama-and-evangelicals-a-modes.html","title":{"rendered":"Obama and Evangelicals: A Modest Mission"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"stoneuphill.jpg\"<\/span>Yesterday, Missouri State University religion professor\/Immanent Frame <\/a>blogger John Schmalzbauer (politely) accused God-o-Meter of underestimating Democrats’ potential to win over some evangelicals <\/a>in November.
\nHe could be right. It’s just that when GOM sees polls reporting 60-percent evangelical support for John McCain<\/a> vs. 23-percent for Barack Obama, despite Obama’s months-long evangelical charm offensive and McCain’s endless evangelical\/religious bungling, it begins to wonder: are evangelical voting patterns are too deeply entrenched to be changed?
\nSchmalzbauer notes<\/a> that Obama’s mission in improving his showing among evangelicals is pretty modest:<\/p>\n

Let me begin by saying that 30% for Obama is still a lot of evangelicals, probably 6-10% of the electorate. This is larger than the Jewish vote, the Asian-American vote (which is 6.4% of the population), and nearly as large as the African-American vote. So it makes little sense for Democrats to write off this constituency.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

It’s a significant point. God-o-Meter went back to the results in Ohio in 2004, where the presidential election was decided for George W. Bush, to see whether a modest uptick in evangelical support for Obama (over what Kerry got in ’04) could swing an election.
\nHere’s what it found:
\nIn Ohio, white evangelicals constituted 25-percent of the electorate, roughly the same proportion as in the national electorate. Bush took 76-percent of the evangelical vote. Kerry got 24 percent. All other factors being equal, if Obama is able to take 29-percent of Ohio’s white evangelicals and pull down McCain’s evangelical support to 71-percent, he’ll win the state, and–if the 2004’s national electoral map were to repeat itself–the White House.
\nIt’s a good reminder: American elections are won or lost at the margins.<\/p>\n


\n8<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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