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Even as Super Tuesday saw John McCain continue to win more primary battles than his Republican rivals, there is mounting evidence that he\u2019s losing the war with the evangelical base of his own party, raising questions about the Arizona senator\u2019s ability to compete with the Democratic nominee in November.\n\u201cThe challenge for John McCain will be tremendous if he\u2019s the nominee,\u201d Family Research Council president Tony Perkins said as primary returns trickled in on Tuesday night. For McCain to rally the evangelical activists crucial to George W. Bush\u2019s 2004 reelection campaign, Perkins said, \u201cWe\u2019ll have to see a side of John McCain that we have not seen\u2014that he clearly understands and supports issues at the center of the social conservative agenda.\u201d
\nAs he racked up victories in big states like California, New York, New Jersey and Missouri on Tuesday, McCain nonetheless struggled to win religious conservatives. Even in many states he won, McCain took less than half the votes of self-identified conservatives and pro-lifers. In some states, McCain lost those voters outright to Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney. And in evangelical-heavy Southern states like Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee\u2014the traditional bedrock of the Republican Party\u2014Mike Huckabee pulled off surprisingly decisive victories over McCain.
\nComplicating that picture for McCain is that many high-profile evangelical organizers who might help change minds about him are skeptical about his chances in November. \u201cWhen it\u2019s time to vote, if it\u2019s between McCain and a Democrat [evangelicals] will vote for McCain,\u201d said David Barton, a Texas-based Christian activist who directed evangelical pastor outreach for the Republican National Committee during the 2004 election. \u201cBut they won\u2019t work for McCain. They\u2019re not going to fall on their swords for him.\u201d
\n\u201cAs close as recent presidential races have been,\u201d Barton continued, \u201c\u2026. I find it difficult to believe that anyone can win without the help of what has been between 35 and 40-percent of the Republican base.\u201d
\nBarton isn\u2019t the only evangelical veteran of Bush\u2019s 2004 reelection effort who doubts McCain\u2019s ability to enlist the tens of thousands of conservative Christian volunteers that Bush did. Asked whether she\u2019d work to win votes for McCain, Pam Olsen, Bush\u2019s 2004 social conservative chairman for Florida, said, \u201cNo, probably not\u2026 it would be very difficult for me to do that.\u201d
\n\u201cI would have to hear the word from God of what to do or not to do,\u201d Olsen said. \u201cMcCain is way too liberal and has done things over the years that have not been good, especially to Christian conservatives.\u201d
\nMcCain has angered the Christian Right by denouncing movement leaders as \u201cagents of intolerance\u201d in his 2000 presidential race, coauthoring the landmark McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill\u2014which restricts advocacy groups\u2019 ability to advertise during elections\u2014and by opposing an amendment to the U.S. Constitution to ban gay marriage. In recent months, onetime presidential candidate Sam Brownback, greatly admired in conservative Christian circles, has helped McCain mend fences with the evangelical movement.
\nBut a handful of evangelical political activists said that McCain\u2019s evangelical offensive has gotten him only so far. \u201cIt\u2019s not just outreach that\u2019s important\u2014it comes down to policy positions,\u201d says the Family Research Council\u2019s Perkins, one of the conservative Christian leaders who McCain has courted. \u201cOn an issue like embryonic stem cell research, it should be easy for him to hold the Bush line.\u201d
\nDespite recent reports that McCain was reexamining his support for federally funded embryonic stem cell research, largely because of pressure from Brownback, he has not announced a change in his position.
\n\u201cHe can say that he understands the family is important and under attack, that he\u2019d appoint a family czar in his administration, that he\u2019d work to get Planned Parenthood off the public dole,\u201d Perkins said, ticking off other ways for McCain to pick up support from evangelical advocacy groups. \u201cThere are things he can do to connect with [evangelicals] but it\u2019s going to be very difficult.\u201d
\nOn Tuesday, Focus on the Family founder James Dobson released a statement reaffirming his opposition to McCain, saying he \u201ccannot, and will not, vote for Sen. John McCain, as a matter of conscience\u2026 Should Sen. McCain capture the nomination\u2026 I believe this general election will offer the worst choices for president in my lifetime.\u201d
\nPerkins and other evangelical activists said McCain could increase evangelical backing by selecting a strong social conservative like Mike Huckabee as a running mate or by bringing more Christian conservatives into his campaign operation.
\nBut the evangelical activist set remains skeptical. \u201cWe may have a nominee who wins the nomination while losing the conservative and evangelical votes, which hasn\u2019t happened since Gerald Ford beat Ronald Reagan in \u201976,\u201d said Ralph Reed, the former Christian Coalition director who directed evangelical outreach for Bush\u2019s 2004 reelection effort. \u201cIn that respect, we\u2019re in uncharted waters.\u201d<\/p>\n