{"id":201,"date":"2009-03-26T20:56:15","date_gmt":"2009-03-26T20:56:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.beliefnet.com\/apagansblog\/2009\/03\/evaluating-the-global-warming-debate.html"},"modified":"2009-03-26T20:56:15","modified_gmt":"2009-03-26T20:56:15","slug":"evaluating-the-global-warming-debate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.beliefnet.com\/columnists\/apagansblog\/2009\/03\/evaluating-the-global-warming-debate.html","title":{"rendered":"Evaluating the Global Warming Debate"},"content":{"rendered":"

I just got through reading a report<\/a> on the global warming denial conference reported in the Scotsman, a major paper in Scotland.  Curious, I read the comments. or many of them anyway.<\/p>\n

As I read them I thought of doing this blog post.<\/p>\n


\n
\nThe science of whether or not there is significant anthropogenic global
\nwarming is something that most of us are not well suited to understand
\nin detail. I certainly am not.  It involves elaborate studies of one of
\nthe most complex systems human beings have yet to try and understand,
\nour atmosphere.  Many scientific disciplines are involved.<\/p>\n

Given my love of the north, I deeply hope the deniers are correct.  I
\njust as deeply suspect they are likely to be wrong.  How can a
\nnon-expert such as myself make such a judgment?  After all, I will
\nreadily grant that very reputable scientists are unconvinced.<\/p>\n

Here’s how.<\/p>\n

1. In what direction is the climate of scientific opinion moving?  It
\nis clearly moving in the direction of saying there is significant
\nanthropogenic global warming.  This is the most important question by
\nfar.  While very credible scientists remain among the skeptics, they are
\ndeclining in number.  <\/p>\n

Laypeople such as myself should always hold tentative beliefs on these
\nmatters until there is overwhelming scientific certainty.  Having said
\nthat, when the bulk of scientists studying the matter say as much, and the penalty for
\ndoing nothing is likely to be very high if they are right, it is stupid
\nnot to take action.  <\/p>\n

This is especially so when many effective actions could be almost without cost in the medium and eve the short run.  For example, having a carbon tax, and having the income from that used to reduce Social Security taxes.  Zero fiscal impact, but we tax carbon, not labor.  Labor gets cheaper without lowering workers; incomes, carbon more expensive.  The demand for labor grows, the demand for carbon shrinks.<\/p>\n

2. Also, at what level is the debate by the different sides being conducted? 
\nAs with arguments against evolution, defending DDT, and defending
\ntobacco, there is a recurrent pattern.  Other than legitimate scientists who are not convinced, those who argue against the
\nprevailing and growing scientific opinion generally demonstrate almost
\nno understanding of the issue, and cover their abysmal ignorance up
\nwith truly vicious ad hominem attacks on scientists and their
\nsupposedly dastardly motives.  The other side f the debate demonstrates a more varied set f motives.  Some are as obnoxious as the deniers, but in my experience, usually not.  <\/p>\n

Often the people who have been on the wrong side of these other issues are now vociferously joining the deniers.  Their demonstrated good judgment and track record are both abysmal. <\/p>\n

Of course reason number two does not rebut the deniers.  It is possible that the
\nmost unpleasant and meanest of people can be right about something. 
\nBut it is evidence that they do not so much care about the issue or the
\nscience behind it as desire to spread their resentment and anger
\ntowards those who know more about something important than they do.  <\/p>\n

It is also evidence that good citizens should probably hold politicians
\nfeet to the fire to do something credible about the issue, for these
\npeople have always been among the worst excuse for a citizen our
\ncountry has ever brought forth.<\/p>\n

Am I too harsh”?  Go check out the entertaining discussion below the
\narticle I cited, as its readers enter into the discussion, and see whether or not I
\nam right.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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