How Do You Pick a Pope?

Conservative or liberal? North or south? Manager or communicator? The factors that cardinals will consider when choosing a pope

BY: David Gibson

The first thing you need to know in handicapping the election of the next pope is that anyone who says they know who will be chosen doesn't know what they're talking about. Recent history is littered with tip sheets from august Vaticanologists who in the end couldn't even get their favorites into the Top Ten.

The second thing you need to know is that anyone who wants the job doesn't know what they're talking about, either, and they probably won't get it anyway. As one of those old Roman sayings has it, "He who enters the conclave a pope comes out a cardinal." The rest of the cardinals don't like campaigners, and in fact it is not only unseemly, but against canon law to electioneer while the current pope breathes. That puts even more guesswork into the predictions.

The system has been in place, with minor variations, for several centuries: Nine days of mourning and funeral masses follow the pope's death, and he is interred generally on the fourth or fifth day. No sooner than 15 days after the pope's death and no later than 20 days post-mortem (to allow time for far-flung cardinals to arrive) all of the cardinals under 80 years old will convene. The number of cardinal-electors is 117.

The cardinals will generally hold two ballots a day, one in the morning, one in the afternoon-the burning of the secret ballots creates black smoke when no decision is reached, and the addition of wet straw (or chemicals, in modern times, so that there is no confusion) creates white smoke when one of the cardinals garners two-thirds of the votes, thus putting him over the top. Modern conclaves generally last no more than a few days, although some believe the college is so polarized that the process could take longer this time.

In making their choice, the cardinals believe the Holy Spirit-the grande elettore-leads them. But they also know that choosing a pope is a political process, albeit politics with a difference. In secular elections, political parties tend to start with candidates who can appeal to voters. Only then does the party find policy positions to flesh out their candidate's campaign literature. In other words, you find the person and then you build the platform. Papal politics works in the reverse. The death of a pope and the subsequent conclave is a unique moment for the church and the College of Cardinals-often known as the "Senate of the Church"-to take stock of where Catholicism stands, where it needs to go, and what issues were either overemphasized or overlooked during the previous pontificate. The cardinals will first argue over the platform for the next papacy, then choose among their number a man to fit that platform.

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