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What happens in Pennsylvania…

posted by David Kuo

…gives the election to John McCain.
I’ve taken a short break from election madness to try and see it from a different perspective – I’ve been talking to friends in Pennsylvania and non-political friends from around the country and around my block and cannot help but arrive at a single conclusion – barring some huge gaffe, some great scandal, John McCain will be the 44th President of the United States.
Here is one particularly interesting anecdote:

Two friends have voted Republican in each of the last three elections. They are white, upper income, have two children, and have loved Barack Obama. They saw him as the outside agent of change, the unifier, but more importantly, they saw him as an honest politician above the fray.
I use the past tense for a reason. They are disillusioned and angry and will not vote for him in November. Why? Because their hopes have been dashed and they see him as the worst of all possible things – a man who has wantonly and cynically manipulate hope for his own greedy political ends.
It wasn’t one thing but rather an accumulation of all the things – Wright, the bitter comment, the debate, etc.
I asked whether they would vote for Sen. Clinton. They laughed heartily. John McCain is their man now. He is the safe choice. He will keep things between the guard rails for the next four years. After that all bets are off.

Clinton and Obama have destroyed each other, destroyed massive goodwill that millions of Americans had toward the Democratic party, and reminded everyone why they hate politics and politicians. It really doesn’t matter who wins later today or by how much – both candidates are alread losers… one just gets out of the race more quickly.



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canucklehead

posted April 21, 2008 at 11:29 pm


Dave – did you see McCain on ABC This Week yesterday? the man is an embarrassment to the serious minded; laughing away about his endorsement by Hagee – a little too much laughing gas at his last Fix-O-Dent appointment perhaps? then he calls Hagee “Dr. Hagee” – say what?
if your prediction here holds true, the Bush II years may look like Paradise four years from now



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yelladawgNC

posted April 21, 2008 at 11:56 pm


It’s a long, long way until November. Obama would have been out of this race had he not fought back against Clinton’s relentless attacks, but as he showed with his recent comment about “all three of us would be better than Bush,” he has a fundamental even-handedness and graciousness that comes through even in the midst of the rough and tumble of the campaign. Exactly how has he “wantonly and cynically manipulate[d] hope,” anyway? I haven’t seen or heard any evidence of that. And what do you mean by “his own greedy political ends?” He’s obviously in the race because he wants to be President; he wouldn’t be running, otherwise. What makes him any “greedier” than McCain, who wants the same thing?
I hope your friends will change their minds before Election Day when they’ve had time to think through just what a catastrophe four more years of Bush policies would be. We are at a crucial point in our history and this election may well be our last best hope to chart a course out of the Iraq debacle and the economic mess Bush has put us in and to take intelligent and effective measures to protect our national security. But frankly, I have to wonder about the judgment of anyone who voted Republican in each of the last three elections. Maybe they should disqualify themselves.



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Jillian

posted April 22, 2008 at 12:07 am


I’m just glad you’ve never jumped to premature conclusions in this race, David. :-)



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Lj

posted April 22, 2008 at 12:46 am


David you have fallen into the old right wing kool aid. It does’nt take much to see how the media is trying to destroy Obama. Every small thing he say is high lighted. McCain will get a pass with his100 year war” and the “good “economy statement. Vicki will be swept under the rug again. McCain will lead you and the rest of America futher in the poor house. if you and your friends have home now,it’s going to be a challength to own a home in four more years of the Bush regime. Teachers,and others are losing jobs daily. Jobs are outsourced to build up other Nations. This is form of socialism for other nation. Conseratives are strange people. The bottom of America is falling out and they are concern about gay right and abortion. The greater sin is greed that is substaining,and prolonging a war. Billion of dollars a month is spent in Iraq to serve corporate crooks and contractors. You have worked in the Bush administration,and you know about dirty politics can be. To degrade Obama because of right wing rhetoric,and a bias new media is strrange for a believer. Rev Wright and all the other things does not make one a sinner. Every man must stand on his on. Others sin should not make you accountabe for them. this is not biblical. If beings a conserative means demonizing others to exalt ourselves or party,it is not of God. You friends are going for McCain,but they can not complain two years from now when their job are deleted.. Has christians take on the nature of the GOP,or the world? it’s sad to read such a post. Maybe the real reason to be anti-Obama is bigotry. I just hope believers does not get swallow up in this bile bilge.



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Elvis Elvisberg

posted April 22, 2008 at 6:16 am


It’s early.
7 mo. before the primaries, Rudy Giuliani looked unbeatable.



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The Apostles were conservative Christians

posted April 22, 2008 at 7:32 am


Luckily as the Leftists take over just about every televison outlet for political social power, there are people allowed to see the truth in other media outlets. “If” America still wants to stay a decent country, then McCain will be elected president. If America wants to be an east to west “girls gone wild” fest, then either Obama or Clinton will give them the nationwide dorm party conditions their looking for. It certainly looks like that segment of society is virtually sowed up for one of the candidates. Hopefully more mature heads will prevail.



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Doug

posted April 22, 2008 at 7:41 am


I’m not sure I trust the results of your survey entirely, but I absolutely agree that Obama has diminished himself a lot these last two months. Of course some of his supporters will criticize McCain instead of talking about what has changed in Obama and some will claim that Hillary drove him to it, but that just proves that Obama supporters aren’t as different as we thought, either.
John McCain seems a lesser candidate than he was 8 years ago. Obama seems a lesser candidate than he was two months ago.



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yelladawgNC

posted April 22, 2008 at 9:26 am


Obama is not superhuman, and if anyone can demonstrate how it is possible to stay completely above the fray when you’re running against people who will basically do and say anything to be elected, I’m sure he would be happy to entertain your suggestions. I think he’s managed pretty well so far and his innate graciousness and remarkable fair-mindedness shine through even in the midst of the rough and tumble of the campaign. Witness his comment about “all three of us” being better than Bush, and his defense of Clinton in the debate when the moderators offered him a huge opportunity to slam her for her sniper fire story. I don’t see any instances of his “cynically and wantonly manipulating hope.”
McCain doesn’t even attempt to conceal the fact that he will continue the policies of the Bush administration, policies which have brought us to the brink of economic disaster while lining the pockets of war profiteers, big oil, and other global corporate interests. THEY are the cynical and wanton manipulators, pulling the strings of our puppet “representatives” who do their bidding. Meanwhile, thousands of the bravest and most devoted young Americans have gone to their deaths in Iraq and thousands more have come home mutiliated, their lives shattered. All for a lie. Who has profited? Not the American people.
I hope your friends will think again, David, because we have all had to suffer the consequences of their votes for Republicans in the last three elections. America is in real danger; our democracy is being strangled. We face enormous challenges on every front. Obama is no messiah, but he’s our best and only hope for survival. We MUST change direction. Otherwise we will soon be living in an America none of us will recognize.



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ShoshannaSue

posted April 22, 2008 at 10:24 am


Hillary will win and go all the way! We will have a woman President and we need one desperately in the Whitehouse to clean up the mess that has been there over the past 8 years. Only a woman can handle that. It is about enough to make a man sick. Oey vey!



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Kevin

posted April 22, 2008 at 11:07 am


If I may, let me compare Obama and his supports to me when I was (past tense) a ruthless womanizer. My strategy was two fold. First, being that there is no such thing as a player, I would prey on either weaker women or women with a glaring insecurity. Secondly, I would keep them in check by always beating them to the punch of accusing them of something I was guilty or insecure of, whether it was lying, cheating, being ugly or not worthy. At some point, each woman got smart and realized the truth and I ended up always at square one, alone and regretting that i hurt that particular woman and that she was great regardless of any shortcomings.
Well, I fell for Obama, and I am a 25 black male who has already voted for him and contributed to him. If anything, I value how something is done (like winning) versus the outcoming. Intregrity is what I am looking for.
In initially supporting Obama, I did so for three reasons: A)the symbolice nature of having a black president, B)His potential budget that could support real programs that would have real results (head start, more police for exammple) and C)Potential political appointees, such as Justice Department where he would set the example that could change, let’s say the war on drugs.
In supporting him, I was initially pleased by his tone but overtime I grew to realize that apart of supporting him means to hate Hillary. Unlike David’s friend, Andrew Sullivan, I dont have Hillary and no matter what bad she is done, I still dont hate her. Let me tie my initially analogy together. I wont rant on much longer.
It has come to a point where Obama’s campaign and his supports were and are extremely unfair. They disguise it well. Accusing Clinton of tearing up the party, of being a liar and untrustworthy, of doing anything political to win and of playing dirty politics, when one can argue they have done it all themselves, ranging from “Bill Clinton’s so-called racist statments in South Carolina” to “ABC hatchet job in the debate” and everything in between where they have ready made excuses and defenders for Obama. They want a discussion on real issues, conveniently after they destroyed Hillary for two weeks on Bosnia.
I hate to say it but we have a Kaiser Soze on our hands.



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Lj

posted April 22, 2008 at 11:20 am


Obama is still the best candidate of all of them inspite of all the attacks. He is strong and will fight for American and their safety. I am not a right wing puppet,who would vote republican even if King Kong was the GOP candidate. Obama is a strong fighter. They have thrown everything at him,and he is still standing. He has my vote. Obama’08.



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Lj

posted April 22, 2008 at 11:25 am


Obama will overcome all the right wings,and Clintonites lies.and go on to victory. God does not honor lies and demonization. It sound good to hater of Obama,even though they know it is not true. Obama is going to be our next President inspite lies and rhetoric.Obama’08



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Anonymous

posted April 22, 2008 at 11:33 am


“”If” America still wants to stay a decent country…”
It hasn’t been THAT since the Vietnam war.
“supporting [Obama] means to hate Hillary”
Bullsh!t. No one needs to “hate” another to support someone else. Such nonsense. What you should “hate” is an unjust, unnecessary war, a 5TRILLION dollar debt, 50 million Americans without access to health care, and yer liar of a “president”.



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Charles Cosimano

posted April 22, 2008 at 11:34 am


Unless there are some remarkable demographic changes in voting patterns Obama has as much chance of winning as the sun has of standing still in the heavens. For example, there is much talk of the young vote, but the truth is that their numbers are not not large enough to move one state. Of course looking at gas prices, those changes might just happen.
But what does amaze me is that anyone could be so hopelessly naive as to think of Obama as anything more than just another politician. He came up with a good act, a nice gimmick, but the act has worn thin and the gimmick isn’t working very well now.



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eric

posted April 22, 2008 at 12:34 pm


I agree with kevin. it isn’t my chance that many people who love obama also hate clinton. I would go even a step further from what he said. I would go out on a limb and say that the democrats will lose this november because of the far left, of which I am guilty of being apart. yes I am very liberal. This group i am afraid hasn’t gotten over it’s hatred of bush for ‘stealing’ the election that in order to win it would sell out, let’s say, bill clinton, or as kevin hinted at have double standards when it comes to hillary clinton. well i am afraid karma is a you know what and i hope for obama’s sake, of which i am still strongly supporting, that we can fix where we went wrong and not have turned off many of our own.



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Larry Parker

posted April 22, 2008 at 1:43 pm


The idea that Americans will vote for another president of the same party as the incumbent who has the HIGHEST DISAPPROVAL RATING OF ANY PRESIDENT IN MODERN HISTORY (even more than Nixon) is preposterous.
In the spirit of Edwin Edwards vs. David Duke (“Vote for the crook, it’s important!”) I’d hold my nose and vote for Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain if need be.



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canucklehead

posted April 22, 2008 at 3:24 pm


I think McCain will be elected on the strength of the over-85 vote. They too can relete to Dent-o-fix, Geritol and Viagra. I also think it was a wise move to name John Hagee as his running mate.



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Tim

posted April 22, 2008 at 3:27 pm


David,
I pray that you are wrong, but alas I think you are more correct than many of us are willing to admit. As my wife said to me this morning…”Hillary is lost on me.” She and I and I hope others are seeing her double talk and desperation for this job rearing its ugly head. I think she has no chance to win and unfortunately has taken Barack down with her. I don’t think McCain is a good choice either, but I think it has come down to the fact that he seems like the safest choice for the majority (of which I am not one). I guess I am saying I can live with John McCain as president, I just hope my kids can…?!?
Another disillusioned, dare I say “bitter” voter!



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Doug

posted April 22, 2008 at 4:19 pm


Tim, do you really think Clinton took Obama down? I saw him as debasing himself during the Ohio-Texas campaigns when he had just won 11 in a row. To me it seems like an unforced error. I think Obama should take a lot of the credit for damaging the Obama candidacy.



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canucklehead

posted April 22, 2008 at 5:47 pm


Canwest News Service: Washington – A new Ipsos-Reid survey of Canadian and American political attitudes finds sharp differences in perceptions of the U.S. presidential candidate on issues of global security.
A mere 24 percent of Canadians believe McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, would bring a more peaceful world if elected to the White House. But 52 percent of Americans felt McCain offers the best chance for making the world safe, rating him higher than Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, the remaining Democratic candidates.
“If there is anything that surprised me it’s what small support Mr. McCain actually has in Canada,” said Ipsos senior VP John Wright. “There’s a sense there is a better level of support for a Democrat because Canadians would rather have a discussion about might, rather than a show of might.”



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Brian Horan

posted April 22, 2008 at 6:45 pm


Evangelical blood-lust has blinded you David. Evangelicals thought the sky was falling when Bill Clinton cheated on Hillary; but 4,000 some U.S. troops dead for lies and countless dead Iraqi civilians are just A. O. K.
Somehow in your mind we’ll be okay just sticking to the course Bush set with McCain. In some wierd way, that’s safe for you.
If you do not understand the consequences of the Iraq war – so be it. It’s an odd position for you considering your sense about suffering on the African continent.
If the general population can’t figure out that endless war in the Middle East has caused gas prices to quadruple; and that eventually we will go bankrupt trying to maintain empire like the U.S.S.R. – then God help us all.
OBAMA knew the war was B.S. from the start. It’s time to end our dependence on foreign oil and oil altogether (the ice caps are melting).
I don’t think OBAMA’s God, but I do think the fact that he’s only been in D.C. for a short period is an asset. He’s raising more money than anybody ever has from average people so that he won’t be beholden to the D.C. interests that wholly own McCain and Hillary.
OBAMA was right, many rural Evangelicals cling to Jesus (in the worst way possible) and guns. Otherwise, why would McCain have courted anti-Catholic bigot John Hagee?
I am curious to know how John Hagee and the whole Evangelical crew feel about McCain’s opposition to the constitutional ban on gay marriage? My guess is Evangelicals really care about $$$, instead of social issues, and don’t want to pay taxes for the war they craved and helped legitamize.
$elfish and ignorant Evangelicals are killing this country.



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maxcat06

posted April 22, 2008 at 10:23 pm


David, I’m sorry…I thought you had more depth than that. In the end, you simply side with the evangelicals. Republican all the way…



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Brian Horan

posted April 22, 2008 at 10:42 pm


Why are Christians being deceived so easily?
This is from CNN – ‘Exit polls show sharp divide among Democrats’.
“Weekly churchgoers made up almost 36 percent of Tuesday’s electorate, and they went to Clinton by a 56-44 margin. More than a third of the voters were gun owners, and they preferred Clinton by a similar margin: 60 percent to 40 percent, the polls found.”
Those clinging to their guns and attending church regularly are willing to choose a lady that tried to build street cred by saying she took sniper fire with her daughter Chelsea in tow in Bosnia.
I think it’s fair to ask the following: ‘What’s wrong with this demographic?’
If you or I padded our resume with a story like that, we’d be out of the running for low level jobs. I figure Bush lowered the bar by evading questions about Vietnam and his AWOL status for the Air Guard.
Sad thing is that church goers and gun lovers voted for this clown (in many cases 2X, even after no WMDs were found in Iraq).



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Tim

posted April 23, 2008 at 11:41 am


I think you are right Doug, Obama did make some serious tactical errors in some of his comments, but Hillary has the Cobra Kai philosophy of politics (sweep the leg) and she will do whatever it takes to get in the office. I cringed last night when she claimed to have won on the issues…huh? To Hillary the issues are (in no particular order)…Rev Wright, Bitter-gate, the Weather-Underground thing, etc. And she got her boy George Stephanopoulos (sp?) to make sure last week’s debate stayed away from the issues that we as American’s are most concerned about, economy, the war, and poverty. She also talked about how she is the one to bring the troops home after their 3rd and 4th tours of duty…that’s great, I am with her, but didn’t she also say last week that if Iran messes with Israel we have to respond in kind. So are you going to pull them out of Iraq and send them across the border to Iran, Hillary? I hope not!
Maybe she and John McCain should be the ticket, they’d be unbeatable…How about McCain/Clinton vs. Obama/Huckabee? Okay so that would only happen in Aaron Sorkin’s mind, but a guy can dream right?



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Sebastian Hurgurberger

posted April 23, 2008 at 11:56 pm


David: “John McCain will be the 44th President of the United States…Clinton and Obama have destroyed each other”
That may indeed be the case.
But if it’s going to be McCain, I think the odds are somewhere around five nines that McCain will take us into a war with Iran.



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c kitty

posted April 24, 2008 at 12:31 am


Kevin, very accurate analysis of the Obama phenomenon. With time and reflection, most will get over their crush and look at all the candidates more objectively. Well, we can hope anyway.
People keep going on about howHillary has turnhed this into such a negative campaign. I have had time to watch more of this campaign than I ever thought I could stomach. It is not Hillary or any of the other candidates that are talking trash. It is the media pundits. The candidates themselves have made fairly inocuous remarks. But then the talking heads come along and distort and mischaracterize what has been said. They are the ones trying to bring down the Democratic party. Consider that most of the people signing their paychecks are conservative Repubs, and it explains itself.
The voters need to sort out what they are really hearing from the candidates and what the MSM commentators are telling them. We have three reasonably good people running, but they are human and it is unrealistic to expect perfection. And if you just want to base your opinion on unsupported gossip, then you msy regret your choice when you learn the facts. Much as has happened with the current White House occupant.



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Dale

posted April 24, 2008 at 10:46 am


I continue to be amazed at the general American public. How on earth anyone can be so blind and gullible regarding the massive culture of corruption the Republicans have allowed into their fray, as to even entertain notions of electing one president, is mind boggling.
I have been sickened by the Clinton politics, but I will NEVER in these days vote for anything that does not repudiate the Bush administration, or vow to wipe the slate clean (and I will NEVER believe that this will be done without a total start from scratch).
Unbelievable



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Doug

posted April 24, 2008 at 5:22 pm


Tim, I agree that Senator Clinton has done all the damage to Senator Obama she could do, I just think Obama’s been more effective. Kevin, Keiser Soze might not be fair but it sure is funny.



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