Rivals Splitting Voters, Huck’s Christian Base Shines Through

huckabee11.jpgReal Clear Politics’ John Ellis makes a convincing case that despite his third-place finish in New Hampshire, Mike Huckabee is poised for victories in South Carolina and other early primary states:

With McCain now anointed by clueless Washington scribes as the putative front-runner, the Arizona Senator must compete in South Carolina, because he will be expected to and because he has some unfinished business there from the 2000 campaign. Former Senator Fred Thompson has announced that he too will make a stand in South Carolina, although this may be moot by week’s end. Romney will compete there, at least with negative television commercials, if only to cut McCain. The net result of all of that will likely be a convincing Huckabee victory, which should solidify Huckabee’s lock on the Southern primary states and enable his campaign to poach in border states, in the Midwest and in the Rocky Mountain States.
….Again, the longer Huckabee faces two “not Huckabee” candidates, all of whom are alien or anathema to the GOP’s core Sunbelt/Christian constituencies, the more likely it is he will eventually emerge victorious in the final showdown, wherever that might occur.


God-o-Meter thinks another way of putting it is that, with so many other viable Republican candidates splitting the party’s establishment voters, Huck’s block of evangelical support is able to shine through and have an outsized influence. But this phenomenon will come back to haunt Huckabee in the general election, should he make it that far. Presuming Mike Bloomberg stays out of the race and there are only two major party candidates, Huckabee’s religious conservative supporters won’t be able to deliver the swing states.


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Michele McGinty

posted January 9, 2008 at 1:41 pm

And there are national security conservatives who think that Clinton knows more about the war than Huckabee. We will be getting the weakest national security candidate if he wins. I’m hoping that evangelicals will realize that before it’s too late.

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posted January 9, 2008 at 3:52 pm

I’m a Christian but utterly turned off by Huckabee. Would Reagan or either Bush have made campaign commericals describing themselves as “Christian leaders.” The dumbth and lack of sophisitication, even sober thought, among religious conservatives is astonishing. Huckabee would destroy the GOP. A disaster.

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posted January 9, 2008 at 5:39 pm

“dumbth” … I like that.
Quite likely he’d be a foreign policy disaster if elected but it would be interesting to see how his populism played with Democrats in congress. I wonder if he wouldn’t lose so many of the economic conservatives he’d be unelectable, but I thought GWB would be unelectable.

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posted January 11, 2008 at 11:34 am

I have to assume Huck would choose McCain as VP , otherwise he’d have no foreign policy/security kudos at all, and without that, he’d have a hard time differentiating himself positively from the Democrats.

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posted January 12, 2008 at 3:41 am

It sure is easy to be a critic. You can pick apart anyone and find something to justify why they are not good enough. That is what lawyers do, they depose until they find something to amplify or twist out of context to use against you. I don’t want a lawyer in the White House, I want an effective leader. Huckabee does not have to be an expert in foreign policy ( The Cabinet/ Advisors have that expertise, in theory) or to conform to Rush’s ultra-conservative platform. Everyone is screaming for “CHANGE” this election- Fairtax is a change that has far reaching positive effects on the economy, trade, immigration, jobs, environment, energy, and more. Research before dismissing the idea. The political ads are designed to trigger your emotions and stir up controversy. Just get the facts and figure out which candidate best supports American Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

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