romney12.jpgThe Wall Street Journal reports on a small but dependable bloc of Romney supporters in Iowa: Mormons. Here’s how they stack up mathematically:

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints says it has more than 22,500 members in Iowa in 68 congregations. Joseph Cheney, the president of one of seven “stakes,” or geographical groups within the church, estimates that as many as 7,000 Mormons are likely to show up on caucus night, and that nearly three-quarters of the Mormons in the state support Mr. Romney.
That isn’t enough to compete with the 500,000 Iowa evangelicals, or about a quarter of the voting-adult population, according to the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life. But in a tight race, the Iowa Mormon vote could give Mr. Romney an edge.

From that statistical read, Mormons appear to be vastly outnumbered by evangelicals. But God-o-Meter notes that fewer than 90,000 Republicans actually turned out for Iowa’s last competitive presidential caucuses, in 2000. If they flock to the caucuses in droves this time around, Mormons could have a somewhat disproportionate influence.


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