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It is now 9PM EST and polls have closed in the critical states IN,VA, GA, FL, OH, NC, PA, MO, and CO (among others). VA is neck and neck, NC is marginally Obama and IN is marginally McCain. GA has been called for McCain, OH and PA are projected Obama, and CO and MO are too early to tell. With the above,…

Happy election day! (Some crazy towns in New Hampshire started voting at midnight). Courtesy of Nate Silver’s simulations, here’s how McCain might win. The most plausible (but still improbable) scenario: Obama takes all the Gore and Kerry states, and McCain takes everything else. Everything else in this case includes states like Colorado (9 EV), where…

In my projection, I gave McCain Nevada by default without really thinking about it. However, looking at the poll trends, it looks clear that Nevada is not even going to be close. Nevada has 5 electoral votes so it won’t make much difference either way. Still, that bumps up my worst-case scenario for Obama from…

In my projection, I detailed why I think Obama might pull an upset win in Indiana, a statet hat went for Bush over Kerry by 20 points and hasn’t voted Blue since 1964. It should be noted that after voting this morning in Chicago, Obama went to Indianapolis: During his brief visit to Indianapolis this…
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