Reihan Salam, poet-pundit at The American Scene, provides some perspective on today:
here’s the thing: America is a strange, diverse, sprawling country, and our elections reflect that fact. There are loyal black Democrats in California who will turn out for Obama and who will also vote yes on Prop 8, a measure that will strip a non-trivial number of married couples of their rights. There are lukewarm Republicans who will turn out because they believe that Barack Obama is a Muslim. There are good and decent people who believe crazy, bigoted, terrible things. And they are part of this process. I don’t think we do any good by demonizing each other. Let’s forcefully argue against equal marriage rights, let’s educate people about the canard that a believing Christian is somehow a Muslim, or, for that matter, that American Muslims like yours truly represent a danger to democracy in the first place. But we have to find some way to live with each other. Good grief.
I think there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic. Regardless of who we are and how we vote, I strongly subscribe to the belief that people are fundamentally rational.And that means that there’s always something we can find common ground on.
In my projection, I gave McCain Nevada by default without really thinking about it. However, looking at the poll trends, it looks clear that Nevada is not even going to be close. Nevada has 5 electoral votes so it won’t make much difference either way. Still, that bumps up my worst-case scenario for Obama from 305 to 310, and my worst-case scenario for Obama from 326 to 331.
If you haven’t already done so, please do take Beliefnet’s exit poll – and chime in here on comments with how you voted and why, if you like.
In my projection, I detailed why I think Obama might pull an upset win in Indiana, a statet hat went for Bush over Kerry by 20 points and hasn’t voted Blue since 1964. It should be noted that after voting this morning in Chicago, Obama went to Indianapolis:
During his brief visit to Indianapolis this morning, Sen. Barack Obama stopped by a union hall for UAW Local 550 and predicted a win in Indiana.
About a dozen volunteers were making get-out-the-vote calls when Obama arrived to appear before the cameras and try to motivate supporters.
Asked about his confidence in winning a state that has not backed a Democrat for president since 1964, Obama said he thinks he can change that pattern.
“I think we can win Indiana, otherwise I wouldn’t be in Indiana,” he said, according to a pool report of the visit.
Obama is now headed back to Chicago, where he is to do satellite interviews into battleground states and play some basketball, a voting day tradition for him.
We will know by 7PM EST whether Obama takes Indiana – and if he does, the election is pretty much over.