Chris Bowers at Open Left does the math, and finds that Obama has already won. His reasoning:
- In order to win the election, all Barack Obama needs are
the Kerry states, plus Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. That adds up to
273 electoral votes.
- Obama leads by at least 9.5% in every Kerry state and Iowa, according to both Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics. Also, my own numbers concur with those calculations.
- This means that in order to win the election, all Obama
has to do is hold onto states where he leads by 9.5% or more, and win
both Colorado and New Mexico. These are both states where more than
half of all voters will cast their ballots before Election Day (source).
In other words, the elections in Colorado and New Mexico are already
almost over, not just beginning.
- In Colorado, about 60% of the vote is already in.
According to the crosstabs of the three most recent polls in the state,
Obama leads early voters by 15% (Rasmussen), 18% (Marist) and 17% (PPP).
Even in the best case scenario for McCain .. he
still needs to win the remaining voters by 18.4% in order to eek out
- A new poll from PPP in New Mexico
indicates that 56% of the vote is in, and Obama leads 64%-36% among
those voters. If that is accurate, McCain would have to win the
remaining voters by 35.7%.
So, unless one of the following occurs:
- Obama blows a double-digit lead in either Iowa or one Kerry state
- McCain wins the minority of remaining voters in either Colorado or New Mexico by at least 20%
Then the election is over and Obama has won no matter what happens anywhere else.
It should be noted that we knew pretty much as far back as March that Obama had won the primary, based on the same kind of mathematic analysis. Bowers’ analysis is also corroborated by Nate Silver’s latest projections, which give Obama a 96.3% probability of winning, with 338-378 electoral votes:
It’s over, folks. Time to start planning for the transition… oh wait, Obama has that covered.
UPDATE: My purpose here is to emphasize that there’s a certain point at which the cold equations of mathematics take over. This election is governed by specific rules, and polls are scientific and statistically significant samples of popular opinion. The entire system, unlike the stock market or the weather, is fundamentally deterministic. The importance of early voting here cannot be overstated, either, providing a much-needed buffer against all the attempts at voter suppression that are sure to occur, not to mention minimizing the inevitable voting logistical snafus. Thanks to Obama’s strategic emphasis on early voting, these kinds of derailing forces are largely neutralized. As a result, the election is much more predictable according to the data. The math wins.
Earlier this year, a number of muslim bloggers including myself came together to found Talk Islam, a group blog project that is rapidly becoming the central nexus of the Islamic blogsphere. Over two dozen of the best-known muslim bloggers, writers, and essayists contribute to the blog, so there’s always something new going on. The site is expressly intended for muslim bloggers to promote their own content at their own blogs, as well as share links and have discussions. You can even follow Talk Islam on Twitter: @talkislam. If you want to know what muslim bloggers are talking about, then Talk Islam should be your first stop. Stop by and take a look!
Join us in a live debate featuring Obama supporter Zeba Khan, Founder and Director of Muslims for Obama, and McCain supporter, Mohamed Elibiary, President and Chief Executive of the Freedom and Justice Foundation, a non-partisan think tank in Dallas, and one of MM’s specialist.
Thursday, Oct 30th 2008 @ 10 PM EST
How does it work?
The debate will take place on MuslimMatters.org. Format will be chat-box.
Can the audience ask questions?
You can ask questions by placing them as comments on this post (preferred) or e-mailing them to email@example.com (deadline for questions: Oct. 29th midnight PST). Only topic-related “respectful” questions for Mohamed or Zeba or the moderator, or other comments about debate format, etc. are permitted in this post. Other tangents (such as permissibility of voting, personal attacks, the need for the debate itself, etc.) will be removed without notice. In other words, the comments are specifically to engage in the debate, not to question it. The best questions will be chosen at moderator’s discretion to be asked of the debaters.
That should be really interesting!
I support Obama for President, and I believe that given the Republican Party’s war on muslims in the public and political sphere (Mazen Asbahi, Rima Sinclair, now Rashid Khalidi just the latest examples), his Presidency will do much to mitigate the tide of Islamophobia washing our political shores. But Obama is still a failure for not facing the muslim smear head-on, with the same political courage he demonstrated in the wake of the Reverend Wright affair and his now-historic speech on race. Did that speech erase racial prejudice? No, but it estalished the framework for a post-racial politics. If Obama had shown similar courage, and applied his considerable rhetorical and leadership skills, towards the muslim smear, he might have laid a smilar groundwork for a post-religious politics, which would not only beefit muslims but also Jews and other minorities, and increased America’s leverage and moral leadership abroad as we seek to promote liberalism and human rights abroad, which is a fundamental strategic objective for own national security).
This failure of Obama to confront religious prejudice is directly responsible for the durability of the muslim smear: 23% of all Texans and 28% of Kentucky Republicans still believe Obama to be muslim (and higher percentages remain unsure if he is Christian or not). Nationwide, it’s 12%, and more likely to sway Democrats against Obama than Republicans for obvious reasons.
Related: good summary and overview of Arab and muslim stereotypes and the complicity of our presidential candidates in perpetuating them, by Jack Shaheen.