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City of Brass

City of Brass

Obama has already won tonight

posted by Aziz Poonawalla

It is now 9PM EST and polls have closed in the critical states IN,VA, GA, FL, OH, NC, PA, MO, and CO (among others). VA is neck and neck, NC is marginally Obama and IN is marginally McCain. GA has been called for McCain, OH and PA are projected Obama, and CO and MO are too early to tell.

With the above, CNN is projecting Obama at 194EVs. This means Obama has already won, because the West Coast has 77 EVs that are a lock for Obama (CA being the big prize, but also WA, OR, and HI). That puts Obama at 271 EVs, even if he loses everything else on the map.

This means we don’t care whether who wins FL, VA, or NC. Nor does he care about IN, MO, CO. He could even write off Iowa at this point. Obama has already won this election.

The only question left is whether we are looking at a reasonable-sized victory in the 300 range,  or a Reagan or Reagan-style blowout of 400+.

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Indiana results

posted by Aziz Poonawalla

Polls just closed in Indiana. Results will be posted to the Indiana Secretary of State’s website. Manically refresh that page starting now…

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NH reporting: Obama ahead 2:1 so far

posted by Aziz Poonawalla

Voting began in New Hampshire as early as midnight last night, so it’s not surprising that the earliest results are already in. In Coos County, Barack Obama leads John McCain 15-6, and in Carroll County Obama is ahead 17-10. So, Obama is ahead statewide 32 votes to 16.

Only ~149,999,952 votes left to tally. Gobama!

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ignore the exit polls

posted by Aziz Poonawalla

With one hour to go before the polls close in Indiana and the first returns start trickling in, the  exit polls are already being leaked. Ignore them. Mark Blumenthal notes that there are numerous problems with exit polls, including overstating Democratic support and “refusal bias”. Also, the networks will begin to report “composite” exit polls as soon as the polls close, but these are actually a mix of exit polling and pre-election polling – in other words, probably not reflective of reality until later in the evening. Nate Silver also offers ten more reasons for ignoring exit polls tonight.

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The best way to keep tabs on what’s going down tonight is probably Daily Kos’s real-time scoreboard, and Twitter – particularly @nprpolitics. Also, Patrick Ruffini is going to be directly monitoring the county-by-county results and will be able to call states earlier than the media.

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