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City of Brass

City of Brass

Post-election musings

posted by Aziz Poonawalla

First, let’s see how I fared – my Electoral College prediction of 310 EVs for Obama was obviously on the pessimistic side. Still, I called this election for Obama last Friday, so for me it was never a question of whether Obama would win, but only by how much. I was overly generous in giving OH, FL and PA to McCain when in fact he lost all three. I was correct about Nevada and Virginia, the latter a historic win in and of itself, but these weren’t particularly bold calls on my part since many other pundits predicted the same. Missouri is still to close to call, and I was wrong about Montana and Georgia, but I was spectacularly correct about Indiana, which went to Obama by a sliver, which is as significant, if not more so, as the Virginia win. As it stands, Obama is at 349 EVs without MO and GA, so by my reckoning I was off by 57 – 68 EVs depending on how MO goes. That’s 87-89% accurate. In other words, I’m nowhere near as good as Nate Silver, who nailed it across the board.

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In no particular order, some additional thoughts:

  • Three political dynasties – Clinton, Bush, and Dole – ended last night.
  • There is no Bradley effect – Obama outperformed Kerry with white males and females alike.
  • Electing a black President doesn’t end racism; it opens the door to move beyond it.
  • In 1963, the Reverend Martin Luther King gave his famous “I have a Dream” speech. Barack Obama was 2 years old.
  • Undecideds broke about evenly for McCain and Obama, validating the pollster models.
  • The era of the Northeastern Republican is over. There are no more GOP congressional seats in New England.
  • In 2004, Bush claimed a mandate and “political capital” on the strength of a 35 EV and 3 million voters (2%) margin of victory over Kerry. Obama has a 200 EV, 7 million popular vote (6%) margin of victory over McCain. Obama also earned 707,793 (and counting) more votes than Bush in 2004. Turnout shattered all records.
  • The world celebrates Obama’s victory – and the unity and outpouring of love for America worldwide reminds me a lot of the days following 9-11, which was the last time the world, especially the muslim world, spoke and stood as one in solidarity with us. Obama will be the Leader of the Free World that President Bush could have been, should have been.

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Yes We Did: word cloud of Obama’s victory speech

posted by Aziz Poonawalla

YesWeDid

Word cloud from Wordle.net of President-elect Barack Obama’s victory speech at Grant Park, Chicago, on November 4th 2008. This is history.

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Obama has already won tonight

posted by Aziz Poonawalla

It is now 9PM EST and polls have closed in the critical states IN,VA, GA, FL, OH, NC, PA, MO, and CO (among others). VA is neck and neck, NC is marginally Obama and IN is marginally McCain. GA has been called for McCain, OH and PA are projected Obama, and CO and MO are too early to tell.

With the above, CNN is projecting Obama at 194EVs. This means Obama has already won, because the West Coast has 77 EVs that are a lock for Obama (CA being the big prize, but also WA, OR, and HI). That puts Obama at 271 EVs, even if he loses everything else on the map.

This means we don’t care whether who wins FL, VA, or NC. Nor does he care about IN, MO, CO. He could even write off Iowa at this point. Obama has already won this election.

The only question left is whether we are looking at a reasonable-sized victory in the 300 range,  or a Reagan or Reagan-style blowout of 400+.

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Indiana results

posted by Aziz Poonawalla

Polls just closed in Indiana. Results will be posted to the Indiana Secretary of State’s website. Manically refresh that page starting now…

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