It is now 9PM EST and polls have closed in the critical states IN,VA, GA, FL, OH, NC, PA, MO, and CO (among others). VA is neck and neck, NC is marginally Obama and IN is marginally McCain. GA has been called for McCain, OH and PA are projected Obama, and CO and MO are too early to tell.
With the above, CNN is projecting Obama at 194EVs. This means Obama has already won, because the West Coast has 77 EVs that are a lock for Obama (CA being the big prize, but also WA, OR, and HI). That puts Obama at 271 EVs, even if he loses everything else on the map.
This means we don’t care whether who wins FL, VA, or NC. Nor does he care about IN, MO, CO. He could even write off Iowa at this point. Obama has already won this election.
The only question left is whether we are looking at a reasonable-sized victory in the 300 range, or a Reagan or Reagan-style blowout of 400+.