Pressures Mount in Picking the Next Pope

VATICAN CITY (AP) - Behind the thick oak doors of the Sistine Chapel, the cardinals of the Roman Catholic Church will do more than pick the next pope. Their deliberations - which begin Monday - also serve as a critical judgment on what the faith needs most as pressures close in from all directions.

The cardinals often mentioned as possible papal successors have already made their voices heard - addressing the world's 1.1 billion Catholics and their fellow red-hatted "princes of the church" expected at the first conclave in more than a quarter century.

Every speech, text and public gesture has been pored over in recent years for clues about each man's style and priorities.

"They must pick the 21st century pope and address 21st century questions," said the Rev. Giovanni D'Ercole, a commentator on Vatican affairs. "It may not be easy."

On one end is the blunt tone of the German theologian-scholar Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, who has taken on everything from rock music to Muslim Turkey's European Union bid in his role as the Vatican's chief watchdog for doctrine. He may be the only papal prospect with an online fan club.

A more nuanced path is followed by Austrian Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn, who has reached out to Islamic leaders but also has encouraged Jewish settlement of the Holy Land. The Latin Americans considered "papabile" - the Italian word for papal candidates - speak forcefully about confronting poverty.

But none have signaled any support for major policy reversals such as easing opposition to contraception or dropping priestly celibacy. It's a fact that pro-reform Catholics are slowly absorbing: Priests do not rise to cardinal by challenging the system.

The conclave, with 115 cardinals under the age of 80 and eligible to vote, must juggle multiple demands and make some hard choices. With no clear papal favorite, the outcome likely will be about compromise and what new priorities attract the biggest following.

There's geography: Do they note that nearly half the world's Catholics are in Latin America and select a "new world" pope for the first time? Or reward the vibrant African Catholics with a pope of their own? Or choose a leader who could reinvigorate a fading flock in Europe?

There are internal dilemmas, including how to reverse the priest and nun shortage in the West, stabilize the money-losing Vatican finances and restore credibility following crippling clergy sex scandals in the United States and elsewhere. The cardinals also must ask: Who among them can handle the important dialogue with Islam and other contemporary moral quandaries like cloning and biotechnology?

Rising above it all may be the powerful legacy of the charismatic Pope John Paul II. The cardinals heard the cries from pilgrims last week at the pontiff's funeral: "Santo subito!" meaning make him a saint immediately.

"The church cannot go backward," said Fernando Segovia, a theologian at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tenn. "The new pope must be someone who also can relate to the people as a pastor and leader. This could be the biggest force in the conclave. If the cardinals ignore this momentum, the church could suffer a serious blow."

The process begins Monday with a special Mass. Then comes the conclave. The cardinals are cut off from the rest of the world until they reach a decision.

Cardinals will decide after taking their oath Monday whether they will take a first vote that day or wait until Tuesday. Then it's four rounds a day until two-thirds of the cardinals - at least 77 - back one name. If no pope emerges late in the second week, a simple majority can vote to change the rules so a winner can be elected by a majority - at least 58.

It took eight ballots over three days in October 1978 to elect the first Polish pope. The prelate who appears this time in the central window of St. Peter's Basilica will be caught in the reflected glare of John Paul's history-making papacy.

His every move will - at least initially - be measured against John Paul. As one placard read last week in St. Peter's Square: "What would JP-Two do?"

But the late pope's decisive moments came during the Cold War. His successor inherits a very different world.

The world's richest nations "must search an alternative global program where all have the possibility to integrate themselves and no one remains outside," Brazilian Cardinal Claudio Hummes said in 2002. "There will be no future if things go on as they now stand."

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